No. 1 Alabama upset by Vanderbilt: Are the Tide in Playoff trouble after historic loss?

They’re calling it college football’s version of the Music City Miracle.

Vanderbilt made history Saturday, knocking off No. 1 Alabama 40-35. It marked the Commodores’ first-ever win over an AP top-five team and just the fourth time Alabama has lost as a No. 1 team to an unranked opponent.

Diego Pavia was the star for the Commodores, passing for 233 yards and two touchdowns. He also rushed 20 times for 56 yards. Vanderbilt jumped out to a 13-0 lead on a Sedrick Alexander 7-yard touchdown run and a 24-yard interception return by Randon Fontenette halfway through the first quarter and led 23-14 at the half.

It was the first time the Commodores had defeated Alabama since 1984, and it came one week after first-year Alabama coach Kalen DeBoer recorded the biggest win of his short tenure in a thriller against Georgia.

Alabama had a 94 percent chance to make the College Football Playoff per Austin Mock’s model entering the weekend, the best probability in the country. Its chances fell to 81 percent after the loss, knocking it down to a No. 8 seed.

The goalpost has left the stadium pic.twitter.com/tTlO0FrxtX

— Billy Derrick (@billyderrick10) October 6, 2024

Vanderbilt thrives in Saban’s shade

Vanderbilt has long been a bottom-feeder of the SEC. The Commodores were 0-60 all-time versus top-five teams, a streak dating back to 1936. Legendary former Alabama coach Nick Saban poked fun at the Commodores two weeks ago on “The Pat McAfee Show,” saying: “The only place you play in the SEC that’s not hard to play is Vanderbilt. It’s no disrespect to them; it’s just the truth.”

Vanderbilt had some fun with that quote after the win.

NO WAY#Vandy played this quote from Nick Saban after the upset over Alabama:

“The only place that’s not hard to play in the SEC is Vanderbilt.” pic.twitter.com/QDfGufSQol

— Billy Derrick (@billyderrick10) October 5, 2024

It’s true that Alabama brought a bevy of fans to Nashville, Tenn., expecting a dominant win. Saturday’s game brought a different reality. The frustration from Alabama’s side started to pour over before the game ended.

Senior and team captain Malachi Moore was flagged for unsportsmanlike conduct for kicking the ball after a Vanderbilt quarterback kneel with a little over a minute to play. On the sideline, Alabama quarterback Jalen Milroe sat in disbelief. With a similar disposition, DeBoer addressed Moore’s outburst and the general frustration of Saturday’s result.

“There’s a lot of guys that are really frustrated,” DeBoer said. “I think the key is that we turn that frustration into positives moving forward and make sure we remember what we feel here tonight.”

Here is Malachi Moore outburst at end of Vandy upsetting Alabama. pic.twitter.com/21dIUvwsEj

— puntingiswinning (@puntingwinning) October 6, 2024

Meanwhile, on the field, the Vanderbilt faithful had one thing in mind: Get on the field and go for the goal post, a la Tennessee’s upset over Alabama in 2022.

Eventually, the Commodores fans got the goal posts to Broadway in Nashville … and then tossed them into the Cumberland River. — Kennington Smith III

BREAKING: The goal post has arrived onto Broadway 🚨🚨🚨🚨🚨 pic.twitter.com/RKdVUrfcXD

— Aaron Grisham (@AGrisham247) October 6, 2024

The goalposts are in the cumberland! @VandyFootball pic.twitter.com/XSRiSC5vDo

— 102.5 & 106.3 The Game (@1025TheGame) October 6, 2024

Vanderbilt’s win is the biggest of the year

In pulling off the greatest Vanderbilt victory of the modern era — harkening back to the days of Dan McGugin roaming the sideline a century ago — the Commodores generated excitement for the future. And a bit of regret.

This team should be 5-0. Without an upset loss at Georgia State and a double-overtime heartbreaker at Missouri, this would be the highest-ranked story of college football.

As it is, Vanderbilt is a team to watch for the rest of the season because of Pavia and the magic he creates in this dazzling option offense. He does it all, and Alabama simply could not stop him from making gigantic plays — mostly through the air in the second half. — Joe Rexrode

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Alabama isn’t in as much CFP trouble as it might seem

The CFP margin for error has shrunk, of course, for an Alabama team that still has challenging road games against Tennessee, LSU and Oklahoma ahead.

But if the Crimson Tide keep executing offensively the way they did in the past two games, they still have a good chance of being one of the 12 teams in the tournament. This was a brutal defensive effort, especially late when Vanderbilt ran right into that defense for key gains at times.

Also, Vanderbilt’s offense is like nothing Alabama will see for the rest of the season. This was assignment football, poorly executed by Alabama, a week after winning the game of the year to date. Alabama should respond. Don’t run DeBoer out of town just yet. — Rexrode

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First-half miscues

Pavia finished the first quarter 4-for-4 for 56 yards; Vanderbilt possessed the ball for more than 10 minutes and converted three of its four third-down tries.

Alabama found itself down 7-0. On the Tide’s first possession, a tipped pass resulted in a pick six and Alabama’s deficit grew to 13-0.

VANDERBILT PICK 6

THE COMMODORES ARE UP 13-0 OVER ALABAMA 😮pic.twitter.com/Jkfg1efxGi

— Hayes Fawcett (@Hayesfawcett3) October 5, 2024

In the second quarter, penalties hurt Alabama. Trailing 13-7, Alabama forced a punt on the Vanderbilt 47-yard line, but a penalty with both No. 2s (Zabien Brown and Ryan Williams) on the field gave Vanderbilt a first down. On the same drive, face-mask and roughing-the-passer penalties gave Vanderbilt two more first downs en route to a touchdown to increase its lead to 20-7. Alabama nearly fumbled the ensuing kickoff, but the fumble call was overturned, preventing a catastrophe.

It’s the continuation of a trend, as the Tide entered Saturday ranked 96th nationally in total penalties and 104th in penalty yards.

Despite a near-even margin in total yards (Vanderbilt 186, Alabama 159), the Commodores controlled the game by converting third downs — 7 of 10 in the first half. — Smith

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Why didn’t Alabama try an onside kick?

After Williams scored his second touchdown, Alabama trailed 40-35. With 2:46 remaining and all three timeouts, Alabama had a choice: attempt an onside kick or kick the ball downfield and trust the defense. The offense never got the ball back, as the Commodores ran seven plays for 54 yards to end the game. Afterward, DeBoer explained the thought process.

“A lot of consideration,” DeBoer said of his decision to kick away. “Just understanding everything with the timeouts and the two-minute warning and all that, (it) just really felt like we were going to be in a good spot, even if they got one first down. Depending on when that was, we would still be able to have a good amount of time to move down the field. I don’t think it was a matter of us being able to find guys and execute and score offensively. It was just a matter of getting the ball back.”

The decision to give Vanderbilt the ball back was questionable given the flow of the game. Vanderbilt improved its yards-per-play average in the second half (to 6.6, up from 4.7 in the first half) and converted 5 of 8 third-down attempts, finishing 12 of 18 for the game. Overall, Vanderbilt dominated the time of possession with more than 42 minutes of clock control and punted the ball only twice. It’s a bitter pill to swallow for the coaches and players, but particularly for the offense, which had started to gain momentum. Alabama’s offense scored on its final possession of the first half, the opening possession of the second half and twice more in four attempts in the second half. Milroe was aligned with DeBoer in trusting the defense to get one more stop but acknowledged that not having the opportunity for a second consecutive winning drive was disappointing.

“Of course, when you have the passion of playing football, you want plays back, you want an opportunity,” Milroe said. “The biggest thing for us is trust in one another. … I was confident in the defense getting the stop, 100 percent. We were just talking on the sideline, getting the game plan, so whenever we get back on the field, we were clicking and moving in the right direction.” — Smith

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Williams’ magic isn’t enough

When Alabama needed a big play, it called on its 17-year-old phenom, Williams, and he delivered.

Milroe found Williams for 11- and 13-yard completions on the first two plays of the second half, on a drive that resulted in a touchdown to cut the Tide’s deficit to 23-21.

Several minutes later, after Vanderbilt extended the lead to 30-21, Williams delivered another spectacular play: a 58-yard touchdown in which he tightroped the sideline on a contested catch and took it the distance. Then, faced with a fourth-and-goal and trailing 40-28, Williams’ 2-yard touchdown run put Alabama back within one possession.

👀👀👀👀@Ryanwms1

📺: SEC Network pic.twitter.com/Vq9ZHy92Rf

— Alabama Football (@AlabamaFTBL) October 5, 2024

His three receptions for 82 yards and rushing touchdowns were bright spots for an Alabama roster that couldn’t get over the hump to avoid an upset. Amid a historic loss, the true freshman continued to build his legacy early in his career. — Smith

Required reading

• Where does Vanderbilt over Alabama rank among college football’s biggest No. 1 upsets?

• When was the last time Vanderbilt beat Alabama? More than 40 years ago

• How does Vanderbilt’s upset over Alabama impact the College Football Playoff?

(Photo of Junior Sherrill: Matthew Maxey / Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)