MLB Power Rankings: Mets, Tigers on the upswing; 1 thing each team is playing for

admin September 25, 2024 Sports Leave a comment 0 Views

By Tim Britton, Chad Jennings and Kaitlyn McGrath

Every week,​ we​ ask a selected group of our baseball​ writers​ — local and national — to rank the teams from first to worst. Here are the collective results.

Well then, we’ve made it — through 25 weeks of power rankings, through ups and downs and surprises and collapses and turnarounds — to arrive at this last, very relevant week of the Major League Baseball season. At the start of the month, we wondered whether the postseason races were pretty much decided. Now, we enter the final week with several slots still undecided.

The National League West is, somehow, still up for grabs. Three teams are fighting for the final two wild-card spots in the NL. Four teams are in the hunt for the final two spots in the AL, with the Tigers actually in postseason position at the moment.

So there are plenty of teams playing for very real stakes in this final week, and that doesn’t even mention the White Sox and their attempt to avoid further history. There are also teams playing out the string, which doesn’t mean they aren’t playing for something these last six days of the regular season.

That’s the theme this week: What is left for each team to accomplish this regular season?

Record: 93-64
Last Power Ranking: 1

One thing to play for: A month of home games at Citizens Bank Park

Sure, stunningly dropping Games 6 and 7 of last year’s NLCS at home to the Diamondbacks has taken a chunk out of the aura the Phillies had created on Broad Street the last two Octobers. But for our money, this remains the loudest place in baseball, and the Phillies have a strong chance to make sure every Game 1 they play, every winner-take-all decisive game they play, would take place at home. Philadelphia enters this final week one game behind the Dodgers, though it owns the tiebreaker, for home-field advantage through the National League bracket. The Phillies are tied with the Yankees, though it doesn’t have the tiebreaker there, should a rematch of the ’09 World Series come to fruition. — Tim Britton

Record: 93-63
Last Power Ranking: 2

One thing to play for: A bye

Let’s focus on two important pieces of information for Los Angeles. First, anything short of a championship has become a disappointment for a team that’s made the postseason 12 straight years. Second, the rotation is a mess, just as much if not more so than it was when it led to a swift NLDS dismissal by the Diamondbacks last fall. For the Dodgers to get to and win the World Series, they’ll need to make it as easy as possible on their pitching staff, and that means playing as few games as possible. The important math here isn’t LA’s four-game lead on current No. 3 seed Milwaukee; it’s the three-game lead the Dodgers hold over the Padres ahead of their rendezvous in Chavez Ravine this week. — Britton

Record: 92-64
Last Power Ranking: 3

One thing to play for: Figure out this pitching staff

As of a couple of weeks ago, the American League East was still up in the air, and the Yankees were playing for a first-round bye to avoid a risky wild-card series. But that’s not much of a question heading into the final week. The Yankees have all but locked up a free pass to the division series — just don’t tell the Orioles, who come to Yankee Stadium this week — and as fun as it might be to see what else Aaron Judge can do this season, the most important thing for manager Aaron Boone is to wrap his head around a pitching staff that could be really good, but has also been occasionally maddening. Who’s starting Games 2 and 3? Who’s pitching the eighth and ninth? As much as anything, this last week’s about data collecting and decision making. — Chad Jennings

Record: 90-66
Last Power Ranking: 6

One thing to play for: A late-season steal of the division

The Dodgers clinched the NL West on Sept. 16 last season and Sept. 14 the year before that. The West is still very much up for grabs right now, with San Diego within three ahead of — hey, how about that? — three games in Los Angeles against the Dodgers. That means the Padres are one of three teams in the NL that controls its own destiny to claim a first-round bye. The Padres have already clinched the tiebreaker over L.A. with seven wins in their first 10 meetings. Claim three more this week, take care of business against the Diamondbacks next weekend, and flip the NL bracket on its head. — Britton

Record: 90-67
Last Power Ranking: 5

One thing to play for: Secure a bye, then get healthy

In late August, the Guardians fell into a tie for first place in the American League Central, and in that moment they couldn’t take anything for granted. In the past month, though, the Guardians have pulled away again. They have now clinched the AL Central and should soon lock up a first-round bye. That’s a priority for two reasons. For one, they’ll get to skip the risky wild-card series, but for another, it will buy the Guardians a little more time to get Alex Cobb past his blisters issue and Steven Kwan over his back problem. Cobb could be the team’s Game 2 starter, but he’s pitched only three times this season. Kwan has been their vitally important table-setter, but he hasn’t played since Sept. 12 (he’s scheduled to return Tuesday). — Jennings

Record: 89-67
Last Power Ranking: 4

One thing to play for: A top-two NL playoff seed (or more realistically, get back on a roll)

The Brewers were the first team to secure a playoff berth this season, thanks to their healthy lead in the NL Central. The club is still angling for one of the top two NL playoff seeds, who receive byes and advance directly to the NLDS. But after a post-clinch slump that saw them drop three of their last four games against the Diamondbacks, their odds are long (FanGraphs says 1 percent). As of Monday, the Brewers trailed the No. 2-seeded Phillies by three games and are without the tiebreaker. That means they’ll be in tough to overtake Philadelphia, who face the middling Cubs and Nationals in their final six games, while the Brewers face the Pirates and Mets. If the Brewers can’t earn a top-two seed, the least they can do is get back on a winning roll and head into October with the good vibes they’ve played with all season. — Kaitlyn McGrath

Record: 87-70
Last Power Ranking: 8

One thing to play for: Remain healthy

The Diamondbacks are in a three-team race for the final two NL wild-card spots, but luckily the schedule-makers have done them a favor. With the two teams chasing them, the Mets and Braves, scheduled to play a three-game series this week, one team is guaranteed to lose each night, which gives the D-Backs breathing room to clinch their spot. Arizona needs to reach 91 wins to lock up a playoff berth and it’s in good shape even if the Mets own the tiebreaker and can push them to the sixth seed. (That might be the more desirable path anyway since it avoids the Dodgers). But, in the final week, the D-Backs must stay as healthy as possible, especially after catcher Gabriel Moreno left Sunday’s game early with left adductor tightness, the issue that previously landed him on the IL, and starter Merrill Kelly left his Saturday start early with cramping. If the D-Backs want to repeat a deep run, they’ll need their entire squad up to the task. — McGrath

Record: 85-72
Last Power Ranking: 10

One thing to play for: Get closer to full strength

After a brutal start to the season, the Astros have played their way into control of the American League West. So much so that even with a 6-1 loss to Seattle on Monday, the Astros still hold a four-game lead in the standings. October beckons (again), but the Astros have been hammered with injuries this season, and those medical issues have continued right up to the final week. Yordan Alvarez got hurt on Sunday, the team has lost important role players Tayler Scott and Ben Gamel, and center fielder Chas McCormick has yet to return from a broken hand. The good news is that right fielder Kyle Tucker returned from the IL this month and has steadily ramped up his playing time, collecting a couple of four-hit games over the weekend. The Astros could use the final weekend to get their best starters lined up for the wild-card series and — ideally — get Alvarez healthy enough for October. — Jennings

Record: 87-69
Last Power Ranking: 12

One thing to play for: A playoff berth and a healthy dose of generational payback

After months spent catching up, the Mets have remarkably put themselves in the driver’s seat to claim a wild-card spot this week. And there’s a chance they can uncork the champagne in Atlanta, of all places, which has only been the setting of nightmares each autumn for the franchise. (Since 1997, the Mets are 5-21 in Atlanta after Sept. 1 when both teams are over .500.)

The Mets have gotten here on the back of a starting rotation operating at its peak. Jose Quintana stopped giving up runs a month ago. Sean Manaea decided to mimic Chris Sale and is getting similar results. David Peterson continues to outperform his peripheral numbers. Luis Severino is still healthy, which has surprised Severino himself. It’s been a charmed few months in Queens. — Britton

Record: 86-70
Last Power Ranking: 7

One thing to play for: Build much-needed positive momentum heading into October

At the start of the season, we might have circled this week’s series between the Orioles and the Yankees as the AL East division showdown. Instead, the Yankees have it all but locked up 99.9 percent odds to win the division.

So, the Orioles won’t repeat as division winners but they will be postseason-bound. In the meantime, it’s time to try to recapture those good vibes. Before play on Monday, the Orioles were 28-32 since the All-Star break and the team has struggled to play consistently. Just last week, they DFA’d Craig Kimbrel, the 36-year-old reliever who was their offseason’s big get. If there is a signal things could be on the upswing, it’s that the club is getting healthy at the right time. The O’s have a week to shake off the bad vibes and while a series win over the Yankees won’t net them the division, it could be a recommended dose of positivity. — McGrath

Record: 82-74
Last Power Ranking: 15

One thing to play for: Remarkably, miraculously, a playoff spot

As recently as August 23, FanGraphs was giving the Tigers less than a 1-percent chance of making the playoffs. Left for dead months ago, the Tigers sold at the trade deadline and were playing out a meaningless string. Until they weren’t. A remarkable second half — fueled by inexplicably elite pitching — has lifted the Tigers into playoff contention. Over the weekend, they moved past the Twins and into a tie with the Royals for the final two wild-card spots. The Tigers finish at home against the Rays (whose pitching has significantly improved since the break) before closing against the White Sox (the weakest possible matchup to potentially finish off the least likely postseason run). — Jennings

Record: 85-71
Last Power Ranking: 11

One thing to play for: A chance in the tournament

Take a stroll through the “Franchise History” page for Atlanta over at Baseball-Reference, sort by winning percentage and look for the bold “Won WS” in the middle column under Playoffs. Scroll past that five-game sweep in 1892, past the miracle Boston Braves of 1914, past “Lost NLDS” after “Lost NLDS,” keep scrolling, it’s further down than you think, and land on the 2021 champion Braves. It’s below the fold, as it were — that 88-73 regular-season record ranking 54th in franchise history. (If you’re wary of counting those seasons in Boston and Milwaukee, well, that 2021 record ranks 26th in 59 seasons for the franchise in Atlanta and 24th in the last 34 years of Braves baseball.)

All this is to say: Get in the dance. In each of the last three postseasons, the team with the worst record in the National League playoff bracket took home the pennant. Atlanta went a step further in 2021, and they did it without Ronald Acuña Jr. that time, too.  — Britton

Record: 82-74
Last Power Ranking: 9

One thing to play for: Learning to win on the road

The Royals should have locked up a playoff spot by now, but they scored one run this weekend, got swept by the Giants, and are now carrying a seven-game losing streak into the final week. They’re definitely not going to win the division, the top wild card feels out of reach, and the Royals have to worry about simply locking down one of the last two playoff spots. The best way to do that is to get hot again, and the only way to do that is by winning on the road. The Royals have a losing record on the road this season (37-38), but they close the campaign by playing in Washington and Atlanta. Assuming they make the playoffs, the Royals are going to have to open on the road in the wild-card round. They have to spend this week getting comfortable playing — and winning — away from Kauffman Stadium. — Jennings

Record: 81-75
Last Power Ranking: 13

One thing to play for: Holding onto a wild-card spot

A month ago, the Twins were positioned to try to overtake the AL Central lead and their playoff odds hovered just under 90 percent. With less than a week left in the season, the Twins are trying desperately to hold onto the AL’s final wild-card spot, while their playoff odds have shrunk to just over 50 percent, per FanGraphs.

As of Monday, the surging Tigers have chased the Twins down and overtaken them for a wild-card spot. All parts of the Twins’ roster are partly responsible for the late-season collapse — Minnesota is just 11-22 since Aug. 18 — but the pitching has been particularly woeful and, as Aaron Gleeman wrote, it’s the exact scenario fans feared most after payroll slashing. Now, the Twins have less than a week to save their season or they’ll face a long offseason of wondering what-if. — McGrath

Record: 81-76
Last Power Ranking: 14

One thing to play for: Spoil the AL Central party and secure a wild-card berth

All the talk about the American League wild-card race has centered around the AL Central teams — the surging Tigers, the flailing Twins and Royals — so I had to double-check the Mariners were still within striking distance. They are, technically, but they haven’t made it easy. Before games on Monday, the Mariners were two games back of the final wild-card spot and their odds of making the postseason were less than 10 percent. To make matters tougher, they’re playing a series against the Astros in Houston, a difficult place for a division rival to gain momentum. Until they’re eliminated, the Mariners can hope to keep putting pressure on the Central teams, but if they’re going to push for a playoff spot, they’ll need help and a little bit of good fortune. — McGrath

Record: 80-77
Last Power Ranking: 16

One thing to play for: The chance to claim marginal progress

Unlike last season, the Cubs’ postseason push is not coming down to the final weekend. However, with enough wins this week, Chicago can reframe that less as its own fault and more the fault of the surprisingly competitive National League. The Cubs’ 83 wins last season left them a game out. If they go 4-2 this week, they can get to 84 and attempt selling it as a step forward. The Wrigleyville faithful won’t buy that, of course, and the Cubs’ pitch should also include something about the growth of Michael Busch and Pete Crow-Armstrong, the additions of Shōta Imanaga and Isaac Paredes, and a suggestion that they might actually spend real money in free agency this winter. — Britton

Record: 79-77
Last Power Ranking: 18

One thing to play for: Making a firmer decision on Jordan Walker

A lot of very good outfielders have started their careers as Cardinals; most of them, however, didn’t flourish until they were traded elsewhere. St. Louis might be reaching that nexus with Walker, who spent another chunk of his second season in the minors and whose overall numbers are way down from his rookie season. He’s looked a whole lot better since the Cardinals handed him everyday playing time upon his latest return to the majors at the end of August. St. Louis is still angling for a .500 finish, but getting a better handle on how Walker — and Michael Siani and maybe Ivan Herrera or Pedro Pagés — fit into next year’s roster is a priority. — Britton

Record: 79-78
Last Power Ranking: 17

One thing to play for: Jarren Duran padding his MVP resume

The Red Sox wanted this final week to mean something in the standings, but even after sweeping a Twins doubleheader on Sunday, they’ve played their way out of playoff contention. There’s probably some value in Trevor Story getting a few more reps and Brayan Bello chasing his 15th win, but the Red Sox don’t have much else to play for. So, they might as well embrace the guy who’s been their best player. Duran isn’t going to win the MVP, but he’s going to finish top 10 and might finish top five (he’s fourth in the AL in bWAR and fifth in fWAR). Might as well embrace the kid’s breakout season by celebrating every home run and stolen base he’s got left. — Jennings

Record: 78-78
Last Power Ranking: 19

One thing to play for: A winning record

Because the Rays haven’t been particularly relevant since the trade deadline, you might not have noticed that they have baseball’s best ERA since the All-Star break. Drew Rasmussen and Shane Baz are healthy again, a bunch of young relievers have pitched well (Manuel Rodriguez, Edwin Uceta, Kevin Kelly), and ace Shane McClanahan is about to face hitters for the first time since Tommy John surgery. The Rays’ pitching is returning to form just as their top prospect, Junior Caminero, is settling in as the everyday third baseman and young Jonathan Aranda has homered in three straight games. No doubt this season was a disappointment, but the Rays haven’t had a losing record since 2017, and they can keep that streak going with a strong finish that suggests they’re not far from being a postseason contender again. — Jennings

Record: 78-79
Last Power Ranking: 21

One thing to play for: A .500 record

No, we don’t mean a 4-2 finish to go 81-81 in 2024. We mean a 6-0 sprint to go 243-243 from 2022 through 2024. The last team to go .500 over a three-season span? That would be the 2013 to 2015 Mets, who probably wish to trade World Series against the Royals with San Francisco.

The Giants’ mad pursuit of mediocrity, after all, must be the reason they spent two weeks not playing Marco Luciano before sending him to the minors to work on his outfield defense, right? Yes, we remain flummoxed by the usage of Luciano. The advantage of being formally eliminated from the playoffs is you can guiltlessly switch perspectives to the future and get a more detailed look at the pieces you think can play a significant role in it. You’re supposed to use that time wisely — not on Brett Wisely. — Britton

Record: 76-81
Last Power Ranking: 20

One thing to play for: Pride

This hasn’t been the tide-turning season the Reds were hoping for and that reality was reinforced when the club fired manager David Bell late Sunday night. Bell was in his sixth season leading the club and finished his tenure with a 409-456 record in those six years with just one playoff appearance, in the COVID-shortened 2020 season. When a manager is fired, it typically means the team has underperformed, so the Reds head into their final five games knowing their manager paid the price for their sub-par play. To end the season at .500, the Reds would need to go 5-0, so likely, the only thing left to do is to play for pride, which may simply look like a team playing hard until the end, despite a disappointing season. — McGrath

Record: 74-82
Last Power Ranking: 23

One thing to play for: Prep the rotation for a better 2025

Late last week, the Rangers did something they’d never done before but might do quite a bit in 2025: they pitched would-be-ace Jacob deGrom and first-round pick Kumar Rocker in back-to-back games. Neither game was a win, but wins don’t mean much this season. The defending champs will not defend their title, but they have enough returning talent to be back in the mix next season, and both deGrom and Rocker could be key pieces of that bounce back. There’s time for each to make one more start this season — Cody Bradford, too, at the end of an encouraging sophomore season — giving the rotation something to build upon as the Rangers try to rebuild quickly this offseason. — Jennings

Record: 73-84
Last Power Ranking: 22

One thing to play for: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. recording 200 hits

The Blue Jays season has been lost for a while, and the team’s main motivation since August has been playing — and evaluating — their young players. However, Guerrero still has a lot to play for individually.

The Blue Jays first baseman is on the cusp of recording 200 hits in a season. If he reaches that milestone, he’ll become only the sixth player in franchise history to reach that achievement. Moreover, if he notches 200 hits, Guerrero would become only the second player in club history to record 30 home runs, 100 RBIs and 200 hits in a single season after Vernon Wells did so with 33 homers, 117 RBIs and 215 hits in 2003. Even amid a disappointing season for the Blue Jays, Guerrero has re-established himself as a superstar and will be the main reason to tune into the club’s final homestand. — McGrath

Record: 73-83
Last Power Ranking: 24

One thing to play for: Strengthening Paul Skenes’s NL Rookie of the Year resume

The NL rookie of the year race is expected to be a tight one, with the Padres’ Jackson Merrill and Brewers’ Jackson Chourio both receiving buzz as legitimate candidates, but Paul Skenes should be considered the favourite and he’ll have one more start this season to round out his worthy case.

The 22-year-old right-hander has exceeded the Pirates’ record for strikeouts by a rookie with 167 and counting, and after lowering his ERA to 1.99 after five scoreless innings last weekend, Skenes is the first pitcher in the Modern Era with 150 strikeouts and an ERA under 2.00 in his first 22 career games, per MLB.com. Skenes debuted with levels of hype not seen since Stephen Strasburg and he’s more than met those lofty expectations. In a season that’s been disappointing for the Pirates overall, Skenes winning the ROY will be a bright light that could point to better things. — McGrath

Record: 69-87
Last Power Ranking: 25

One thing to play for: Experience for the outfield of the future

Well, the infield of the future is on hold for the last week, what with C.J. Abrams sent down for reportedly staying up too late in Chicago. (Let he who has not amped up life’s difficulty by taking an unnecessary all-nighter cast the first stone.) Overall, though, the Nats have taken another small step forward this year, putting themselves in an interesting position this winter to potentially spend on a big bat. They’ve done it before, signing Jayson Werth just ahead of their window of contention a decade ago. Washington should start feeling good, though, about its young outfield. James Wood has been really good since his promotion to the majors, and Dylan Crews should be, eventually. Jacob Young’s defensive value at a premium position more than mitigates his below-average numbers at the plate. The next Nationals core is starting to come into view. — Britton

Record: 67-89
Last Power Ranking: 26

One thing to play for: Second-half winning record

Truth be told, we’re probably underestimating the A’s in our late-season Power Rankings. They dug themselves a massive hole, it’s hard to get out of that, and even as they’ve made progress in the second half, every step forward has been overshadowed by the franchise’s looming departure and the sense of inevitable disappointment. But the A’s have been pretty good since the break. They’re 30-38 in the second half, fueled by an above-average offense (106 wRC+) and a not-awful pitching staff (4.24 ERA, ranked 16th in the majors). They could even play spoiler with a season-ending series against the not-yet-eliminated Mariners. The A’s have a chance to finish this season looking like a team that’s not great, but not a lost cause, either. — Jennings

Record: 63-93
Last Power Ranking: 27

One thing to play for: Be the team that makes history

Honestly, I considered making the Angels’ one thing to play for, “nothing.” Zach Neto has been pretty good, so maybe that’s something? Pitching prospect Caden Dana had a nice year (but two of his three big-league starts have been duds). Reid Detmers is struggling again, there’s little chance of escaping last place, and even Mike Trout’s future is as murky as ever. So, what do the Angels have to play for? They can be the team that gives the White Sox their 121st loss! On Sunday, the White Sox tied the modern baseball record for losses in a season at 120, and their next three games are against the Angels. The Angels aren’t better than many teams, but surely they can win one of three against the worst team in more than a century. — Jennings

Record: 60-96
Last Power Ranking: 28

One thing to play for: Maintaining top draft lottery status

We’re going to advocate for the Rockies to lose, which shouldn’t be so hard since the club is completing its sixth straight losing season. As it stands, the Rockies and the Marlins share the best odds (22.45 percent) of winning the top pick in the upcoming draft lottery. But, if the Rockies were to let the Angels, who play the White Sox this week, overtake them with a worse record, then their odds would drop to about 18 percent. If you’re going to be a club stuck in an endless cycle of futility like the Rockies, you might as well try to get something out of it. — McGrath

Record: 57-99
Last Power Ranking: 29

One thing to play for: Showcasing their young infield

The Marlins brought in Connor Norby from Baltimore at the trade deadline to hold down third base, moved Jake Burger over to first and now have Xavier Edwards and Otto López holding down the middle infield. López and Norby have been their best hitters over the last month, and despite slumping lately, Edwards is still hitting over .300. That quartet has combined for nearly five wins above replacement (according to FanGraphs) since the All-Star break, which may not sound like much until you realize Miami had gotten less than 0.5 WAR from its infield in the first half of the season. Miami has averaged nearly 4.5 runs per game over the last month, a significant improvement for the NL’s worst lineup. — Britton

Record: 36-120
Last Power Ranking: 30

One thing to play for: All-time infamy as the worst MLB team ever

The White Sox have tied the modern baseball record for most losses in a season with 120, matching the record set by the 1962 Mets. At this point, the White Sox should just go for all-time infamy. It took 62 years for a team to come along and out-lose the ’62 Mets, but if Chicago can rack up a few more losses, perhaps it can put up such an unattainable number of losses that its record will stand for all-time. There is some talent coming down the White Sox pipeline and it’s unlikely the club will be this bad again. This is their chance to pad their losing stats and potentially secure the title of all-time Worst Team in modern MLB history. — McGrath

(Top photo of Luisangel Acuña: Dustin Satloff / Getty Images)




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