Max Verstappen is F1 champion again, but the 2025 season already looks wide open

LAS VEGAS — Max Verstappen’s fourth world championship, secured under the neon lights of Las Vegas Boulevard on Saturday night, has cemented his place among Formula One’s all-time greats.

This was a championship victory unlike his previous three. In 2021, he went toe-to-toe with Lewis Hamilton over the course of the season, the pair scrapping in a direct fight. 2022 and 2023 were years of domination for Verstappen, any threats to his supremacy proving fleeting at best.

2024 has been different, even though the year started as 2023 ended. Verstappen dominated early on, only for Red Bull to lose its position as the pace-setter. Not just one, but three teams — McLaren, Ferrari and Mercedes — emerged as persistent threats. Red Bull’s slump, particularly its impact on Sergio Pérez’s form, is poised to cost it the constructors’ championship for the first time since 2021.

Seven different drivers have scored wins this year. While Verstappen’s immense ability has got him across the line to secure the championship, the stiffer competition foreshadows what he can expect in 2025. Given the regulations’ stability and the need for teams to put as much time and effort as possible into the complete rule overhaul for 2026, most anticipate the pecking order will remain largely the same: McLaren, Ferrari, Red Bull, Mercedes — then everyone else.

As title defenses go, 2025 is already shaping up to be an even greater test for Verstappen.

Is Lando Norris the (way too) early favorite?

F1 has long craved this kind of open, close competition at the front of the pack. The cost cap, introduced in 2021 to foster financial stability, has made it harder for teams to spend their way out of trouble. Upgrades and car development must be carefully planned.

McLaren’s rise over the past two seasons, which could culminate in its first constructors’ title in 26 years, proves how to get things right. Every update added to the MCL38 car throughout 2024 has offered a step forward in performance, giving Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri the chance to fight at the very front regularly.

Norris took advantage of that to mount the most serious threat to Verstappen. Norris’s first chance to properly get in a title fight brought hard lessons to learn. Often his own harshest critic, the Briton took full accountability — maybe even too much — for mistakes at points through the year that temporarily lessened the pressure on Verstappen.

Norris will likely enter 2025 as the championship favorite based on his form after McLaren took a major step forward with its car around Miami. Since the start of the second half of the season in Hungary, he has outscored Verstappen, delivering dominant victories at Zandvoort and in Singapore in a fashion reminiscent of Verstappen in the past two years.

It has proved to Norris that, in his words, “I have what it takes” to fight for a championship. He admitted on Wednesday in Las Vegas that he was “definitely not at the level I needed to be at the beginning of the year,” only to produce “by far some of my best performances that I’ve done” through the second half of the season.

Norris explained that it would also lead to a very different approach from all of McLaren in 2025. No longer chasing, it would be “going into a season with a mindset of let’s try and win it,” he said. “It’s a very different mindset to what we had this year.” The reset of a new season could be big for Norris.

But he isn’t the only McLaren driver who’ll be considering a title bid.

In only his second season, Piastri justified McLaren fighting so hard for his services back in 2022.. While his maiden victory in Hungary came in strange circumstances as McLaren stressed over its team orders, the fashion in which he controlled proceedings in Baku proved his star quality. There needs to be another step in form — Norris leads the qualifying head-to-head 18-4 — to really match Norris, but the positive signs are there.

Much as he’s done in recent months, Verstappen may have to fend off a two-pronged McLaren threat in 2025.

Hamilton’s pursuit of an eighth title renews at Ferrari

Hamilton’s long, successful Mercedes career has been inching toward an underwhelming end. Months removed from the emotional high of ending his win drought at Silverstone and the inherited victory at Spa, he admitted on Sky after the race in Brazil, where he struggled to P10, that he “could happily go and take a holiday.”

The upcoming switch to Ferrari for 2025 is one that, a few months ago, might have looked ill-judged. Mercedes was on the rise through the summer European races, and Ferrari sustained a dip in form. Those roles have reversed since the August break to the extent Ferrari is now chasing McLaren for the constructors’ title. Mercedes is 175 points back of Hamilton’s future team.

Hamilton recently admitted he’s keeping a close eye on Ferrari’s progress, even though his focus remains on finishing in fashion with Mercedes. Regardless of the constructors’ battle outcome, Ferrari should be a threat from the start of next year to win races, giving Hamilton hope that he could mount a challenge for a record-breaking eighth drivers’ title.

The other dynamic of interest in Hamilton’s Ferrari move is how he will stack up against Charles Leclerc, a driver regarded as having championship-winning caliber when given the right car.

Leclerc has been the leader at Ferrari for some time and is on a long-term contract for a reason. Wins in Monaco, Monza and Austin have made this his most successful season to date, and without Ferrari’s mid-season slump in form, there’s good reason to think Leclerc would have been as much if not more of a threat to Verstappen as Norris.

Much of the focus will be on Hamilton when he switches to Ferrari at the start of next year and whether it could be the turning point that gives him a final run of success to close out his trophy-laden F1 career. But Leclerc is also ready to fight for a championship. Amid inevitable discussion over Hamilton’s level of performance toward the end of this year as he nears his 40th birthday, comparing the two Ferrari drivers will be enlightening.

Either way, Verstappen will need to keep an eye on the red cars in his mirrors next year.

And what of Mercedes?

Hamilton’s recent disappointing form has not been felt across the Mercedes team. George Russell felt he could have won in the rainy Brazil race without pitting before the red flag, and he took pole in Las Vegas after the team swept practice.

It was a reminder that when Mercedes gets everything right, it can still threaten Ferrari and McLaren. Russell will head into 2025 as a team leader for the first time when 18-year-old Mercedes protege Andrea Kimi Antonelli joins him. Despite the hype around Antonelli, the expectations for his rookie season will understandably need to be managed, meaning Russell will naturally be expected to spearhead its efforts.

The challenge for Mercedes will be to finally remedy its struggles with its car under this generation of regulations. Since 2022, it has failed to fight at the front consistently, its form blowing from hot to cold, sometimes session to session.

Finally understanding that in the last year of the regulation cycle would be too little, too late, but it could at least give some hope of getting back in the title mix again.

Verstappen will remain very tough to beat

The potential of all three teams to take the fight to Red Bull in 2025 is tantalizing. But we should factor in how strong Verstappen will be regardless next year.

He proved through the second half of 2024 that even without the quickest car, he is still capable of getting big results and fighting against the likes of Leclerc, Norris and Russell. Red Bull worked to understand the balance issues that emerged midway through the season with its Austin update package, offering some encouragement. If it can fully resolve that for next year and restore Verstappen’s confidence in the car, he may go a step ahead again.

To Norris, that remained the biggest challenge. Regardless of the relative car performance, anyone wanting to dethrone Verstappen would still have to defeat him.

“I don’t think you’ll probably get a much better driver than Max ever in Formula One ever again,” Norris said. “That’s my opinion but that’s what I believe in and for me to go up against that belief, to fight against that person that I know is so good, it takes a bit more than what I probably achieved this season.

“But I think what I’ve done since the summer break is closer to what I need to be, and I think that is close to being good enough to be fighting for it next year.”

Carlos Sainz, the outgoing Ferrari driver, will likely be left to watch the lead fight from afar in 2025 upon his move to Williams. But he was excited by how this season was ending.

“It just shows that it could go anywhere,” Sainz said. “When you have four teams within two-tenths and they have a whole winter to work on the car and improve the car, those two-tenths could quickly switch around and create a different favorite. So all four teams, for me, could be in the fight.”

Speaking to the broadcast after the race, with Las Vegas’ iconic Fountains of Bellagio cascading behind him, F1’s four-time reigning champion acknowledged the challenge ahead to defend his throne.

“If you look at it to next year right now, I think it’s going to be a proper battle between a lot of cars,” Verstappen said.

Top photo: Getty Images; Design: Kelsea Petersen/The Athletic