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The 2-8 New York Giants take on the 4-6 Tampa Bay Buccaneers today at MetLife Stadium.
I’m not going to get into the impact of linebacker Kayvon Thibodeaux’s return on the run defense or how they’ll match up with Mike Evans. They’re 2-8. I’m keeping this big picture/QB-related:
-Too many times in the past, the Giants have over-valued meaningless wins late in lost seasons. I think this is an exception. These last seven games aren’t meaningless.
This is the QB room the Giants assembled in Year 3 of this regime. They’re starting Tommy DeVito in Week 12 with no injuries at the position. Results should be expected. If Daboll can’t get more of out of the offense after benching Jones. …
-For all of the talk of the “spark” DeVito created last season, running back Saquon Barkley was important in getting the rest of the team to rally around the undrafted rookie. You’ve heard some skepticism this week from players about the way the QB situation has been handled. Who is going to be the leader among this group that gets everyone to buy in?
-The biggest thing to monitor from a development standpoint is how many sacks DeVito takes. Take a look at his sack rate stats from last season. They’re staggering.
Defenders will point to the offensive line, but he was playing behind Andrew Thomas, Justin Pugh, John Michael Schmitz, Ben Bredeson and Tyre Phillips. That’s at least serviceable, especially with an elite LT (who won’t be there for him this season). Quarterback Tyrod Taylor had an 8.6 percent sack rate last season behind similar/worse line combinations. DeVito’s sack rate was more than double that. His sack rate was 14.1 percent in the preseason. That’s higher than any qualifying QB this season.
-The other thing with DeVito is he didn’t throw deep last season nearly as much as some seem to remember. He threw 20-plus yards downfield on 7.9 percent of his attempts. That was more than Daniel Jones (6.9 percent), but still among the lowest in the league. Again, comparing to Taylor (15 percent) shows the difference.
-So, you may be sensing that I’m not bullish on DeVito transforming the offense. The Bucs have a bad pass defense (they allowed 509 yards passing to Kirk Cousins in Week 5) and maybe DeVito’s presence will spark the defense, which created 12 takeaways during his three-game winning streak last season (the Giants have just eight in 10 games this season). But yeah, I’m not expecting his insertion in the lineup to make a dramatic impact on the league’s lowest scoring offense.
-This is how rookie wide receiver Malik Nabers described what he’s looking for from a QB: “I just want the ball. As long as you can give me the ball, then we good.” I’m expecting the Giants to force-feed Nabers today.
-It will be interesting to see how Evan Neal holds up in his second start at RT. They gave him a ton of help in pass protection against Carolina. That will be tougher to do against a blitz-heavy defense like Tampa.
–Prediction: Bucs 23-16. I expect Daboll to manage this game to keep it close. He can’t afford a blowout. I’m expecting him to lean on the run and mix in a few shot plays to create explosives. The Bucs have a potent offense, but they’re missing some pieces. The Giants’ defense hasn’t been great, but it has managed to keep opponents from having any huge scoring outputs.
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