Did Ohio State burst Indiana’s bubble? What Buckeyes’ dominant win means in Playoff chase

By Cameron Teague Robinson, Justin Williams and Scott Dochterman

No. 2 Ohio State handed No. 5 Indiana its first loss, 38-15, bringing more clarity to the Big Ten championship picture while raising questions about the Hoosiers’ position in the College Football Playoff race.

In its first top-five matchup since the 1968 Rose Bowl and arguably the biggest regular-season game in program history, Indiana scored a touchdown on its first possession and was even with the Buckeyes until late in the second quarter. But two special teams plays — a fumbled punt snap and a punt return touchdown — shifted the game to Ohio State, which dominated the Indiana offense for the final three quarters until the Hoosiers added a late touchdown.

Ohio State running back TreVeyon Henderson broke off a 39-yard run after Indiana’s final score but intentionally slid short of the end zone to take time off the clock, though quarterback Will Howard punched in a touchdown two plays later to make the final margin 23 points.

“Well, in life all good things come to an end eventually,” Indiana coach Curt Cignetti said. “I give Ohio State a lot of credit. They dominated the football game.”

CALEB DOWNS TO THE HOUSE 🏠🌰@OhioStateFB starts the second half with a bang ⚡️ pic.twitter.com/XT4Wrax5CI

— FOX College Football (@CFBONFOX) November 23, 2024

Indiana has won 10 games for the first time in program history, with its first nine wins by double digits, but it also doesn’t have a win against a ranked opponent. It entered Saturday with a 79 percent chance to make the Playoff, according to The Athletic’s projections model, and will finish the regular season against Purdue, which has just one win. The Hoosiers’ odds fell to 58 percent to make the field and just 2 percent to host a first-round game as of Saturday afternoon.

Ohio State, which plays rival Michigan next week, is viewed as a virtual lock for the Playoff thanks to its wins over the Hoosiers and Nittany Lions.

The Buckeyes (10-1, 7-1 Big Ten) are now 2-1 against top-five teams this year, losing to Oregon by a point but beating Penn State. Indiana (10-1, 7-1) has only one top-five win in program history, against Purdue in 1967. The Hoosiers haven’t won against the Buckeyes since 1988.

Ohio State closing in on Big Ten title game

For the 12th consecutive year, Ohio State enters its final regular-season game with a chance to clinch a berth in the Big Ten championship game, this time opposite top-ranked Oregon.

With the win against Indiana, all the Buckeyes need to do is beat rival Michigan for the first time since 2019 to earn their first trip to Indianapolis since 2020. Ohio State had the same scenario intact in each of the past three seasons, only to fall short against the Wolverines, who earned the berth themselves in those games. This time, the Buckeyes will be heavily favored.

Of the previous 11 times Ohio State could clinch, nine were outright opportunities, while the Buckeyes would have needed help twice (2016, 2015). They were successful six times. Ohio State couldn’t advance to the Big Ten title game in 2012 because it was ineligible for the postseason.

Indiana is a long shot now, needing both Ohio State and No. 4 Penn State, which escaped with a one-point win at Minnesota on Saturday, to lose one more game. The Hoosiers lose the head-to-head tiebreaker with Ohio State and Penn State has a better strength-of-victory component. — Dochterman

What does the loss mean for Indiana’s Playoff hopes?

The result was the worst-case scenario for Indiana: getting handled in its first and only real test against a quality opponent this season.

The Hoosiers didn’t have to win in Columbus to fend off the Playoff skeptics, but a more competitive showing and final score would have really helped their cause. Now Indiana will have to hope for losses elsewhere — from the likes of Texas, Penn State and the crowd of two-loss SEC teams — and point to a dominant start against a dodgy schedule, all while battling the horde of fans and talking heads poking holes in its resume.

Help is already coming, at least, as Florida upset No. 9 Ole Miss on Saturday to likely knock the three-loss Rebels out of the Playoff chase and give the Hoosiers some breathing room.

Saturday’s loss doesn’t happen in a vacuum. The Hoosiers are still a 10-1 team that passed the eye test entering this weekend, and stumbles elsewhere in the CFP race will keep them in the mix. But Indiana ceded the upper hand in its Playoff argument, especially in trying to host a first-round game, and with lowly Purdue waiting next week, it won’t have another chance to earn it back unless it gets a lot of help and sneaks into the Big Ten title game. — Williams

GO DEEPER

College Football Playoff 2024 projections: Indiana, Ole Miss tumble after losses

Ohio State defense showing how much it’s grown

Saturday felt like a statement performance from Ohio State and its defense under coordinator Jim Knowles.

Indiana came into Saturday with the Big Ten’s top scoring offense, and it started hot, too, with a touchdown drive aided by two pass interference calls against corner Davison Igbinosun. But for most of the rest of the afternoon, it couldn’t block Ohio State’s blitzes, get anybody open downfield or sustain a rushing attack. Indiana totaled 145 yards on its first and last drives and 6 yards the rest of the game.

This is the performance Ohio State has been building up to since the loss to Oregon.

GO DEEPER

Did Ohio State need to lose at Oregon to reach its full potential?

After a bye week, there was an obvious change in tendencies by the defense. It started blitzing more, moving its defensive line around and changing its coverages to keep teams off-balance. All the experimentation against teams like Northwestern and Purdue paid off on Saturday, as Ohio State had Kurtis Rourke uncomfortable all game. He completed just 8 of 18 passes for 68 yards with one fumble, easily his worst performance of the season.

An Ohio State defense that got beat deep against Oregon often gave up just one pass over 15 yards. That’s especially impressive considering Indiana came in ranked ninth nationally in explosive play rate, per TruMedia. The coverage on the back end was good, but Ohio State also benefited from pressure that it didn’t generate against Oregon. Ohio State sacked Rourke five times and rattled him to the point where he looked uncomfortable even when there wasn’t pressure.

Sacks: 5
TFL: 8

No. 2 @OhioStateFB‘s defense showed up in a big way vs. No. 5 Indiana 🔥#B1GFootball pic.twitter.com/Unjt5PhqEp

— Big Ten Network (@BigTenNetwork) November 23, 2024

Ohio State still has room to grow on defense, but if you take anything away from Saturday’s performance, it should be that this defense is indeed much different and improved from the one that lost 32-31 at Oregon on Oct. 12.

Michigan is next week, but everything is leading up to a rematch with Oregon in the Big Ten title game. That’ll be the true measuring stick of defensive growth, though it shouldn’t take away from another dominant performance by the defense Saturday after the Buckeyes also held Penn State without an offensive touchdown. — Teague Robinson

Hoosiers not good enough to overcome special teams miscues

Indiana started the afternoon by forcing a three-and-out on defense and then ripping off an 11-play, 70-yard touchdown drive to take an early 7-0 lead. The Hoosiers gained just 81 yards the rest of the game.

A stymied offense was knee-capped by a pair of dreadful plays on special teams. The first was a muffed punt snap that squirted through the hands of punter James Evans late in the second quarter, handing Ohio State the ball on the Indiana 7-yard line and a gift-wrapped touchdown right before the half. Then after a three-and-out to open the third quarter, Indiana gave up the punt return score to Downs for a 21-7 deficit. It proved insurmountable for an offense that barely crossed midfield the rest of the way.

“They won. They deserved to win,” Indiana coach Curt Cignetti said. “They’re a terrific football team, and coupled with the noise it made it a very challenging day for us. I give them nothing but credit.”

The Hoosiers entered the game averaging 453.2 yards per game and 6.9 yards per play, the latter good enough for a top-10 ranking in the FBS. Ohio State held them to 151 yards and 2.6 yards per play — and well below the 43.9 points-per-game average they came to Columbus boasting. This comes after Indiana managed just 18 second-half yards in a close win against Michigan.

As good as the offense has been this season, Indiana needed some fortunate bounces against a more talented Ohio State roster. Instead, the Hoosiers were sunk by self-inflicted errors and a dominant Buckeyes defense. — Williams

Ohio State gets a long-awaited return TD

Ohio State coach Ryan Day said all offseason his team was going to return a punt for a touchdown this season.

Well, it happened when Downs, the Alabama transfer safety, took a punt 79 yards for a score. It was the first punt return touchdown for the Buckeyes since Jalin Marshall took one 54 yards for a score in 2014, also against Indiana.

That wasn’t the only major special teams play of the game, as Ohio State picked up a fumbled punt snap to set up a touchdown.

Special teams has been a point of emphasis this season after Day parted ways with former coordinator Parker Fleming. While there’s still some concern about kicker Jayden Fielding’s leg — specifically where his max distance is and whether he can make a clutch kick in a Playoff game — overall the special teams units have been stronger this season. — Teague Robinson

Howard continues his stellar season

Howard has been everything Ohio State has needed this season. The fifth-year Kansas State transfer has been the emotional and vocal leader that Ohio State missed last season, and he’s also been one of the most efficient quarterbacks in the country.

He came into Saturday’s game ranked third in the FBS in completion percentage, and that number is only going to rise after this performance.

Howard completed 22-of-26 passes for 201 yards, two touchdowns and one interception. He also ran in a touchdown in the fourth quarter. He completed 85 percent of his passes, the sixth time this season he’s eclipsed the 80 percent mark and fourth time he’s done it with 20 or more attempts.

Will Howard ➡️ Emeka Egbuka

No. 2 @OhioStateFB levels up No. 5 Indiana.#B1GFootball on @CFBONFOX 📺 pic.twitter.com/0jijHSuu3o

— Big Ten Network (@BigTenNetwork) November 23, 2024

If anyone believed that Howard only benefits from in-rhythm and systematic throws, then Howard dispelled those rumors in the first half.  With Ohio State facing a third-and-35 at the Indiana 40-yard line, Howard scrambled to buy his receivers more time to get open downfield and found Carnell Tate, who was running to find open space for Howard to get him the ball. He made a good throw for 25 yards. Then, facing fourth-and-10, he found Tate open again.

“You just kind of have to make a play,” Howard said. “I think that really set the tone for the game and said we’re here to play. I don’t really have any answers for how that happened, it’s just players making plays and guys getting open for me down the field.”

Howard has now completed no less than 60 percent of his passes in every Big Ten game this season and more than 80 percent in two of the top-five games. He’s gone from being a question mark at quarterback to being a player who can be a difference-maker with his arm and his legs.

GO DEEPER

How much has Will Howard improved? The answer could dictate Ohio State’s title hopes

(Photo of Carnell Tate: Jason Mowry / Getty Images)