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The vibe on Wall Street post Donald Trump’s re-election: bring on the good times.
“This election was about whether you were more scared of four years of the same or more scared of four years of change,” Apollo Global (APO) co-founder and CEO Marc Rowan said at Yahoo Finance’s Invest conference, adding that the “market’s verdict’s been rendered.”
Added Rowan, “I think this administration has a remarkable chance to really pivot the country to take advantage of all the inherent positives that we have.”
Rowan’s optimism matches that of the market, with the S&P 500 rallying above 6,000 in the best post-election day melt up of all time. The rally is based in part on Trump policy proposals around making tax cuts permanent and loosening regulations, experts say.
But that rally and optimism may be ignoring a tariffs-led headwind.
The top 100 firms in the S&P 500 by market cap get 8% of their revenue on average from China. If Trump’s proposed 60% tariff on Chinese imports comes to fruition, profit margins and stock prices could slip, though it’s more likely tariffs will double from current levels, according to Bloomberg Economics.
It’s a concern echoed by Deutsche Bank chief US economist Matthew Luzzetti on Yahoo Finance’s Opening Bid podcast (listen in below).
“Markets are telling you more or less Donald Trump means somewhat good for growth, somewhat inflationary,” Bridgewater Associates co-chief investment officer Karen Karniol-Tambour said at Invest, warning that immigration restrictions and a lift to the deficit are inflationary.
To understand when the deficit devil over the shoulder becomes a zombie in front of you, BlackRock’s Rick Rieder watches foreign demand at Treasury auctions. Despite these risks and elevated equity multiples, he’s still bullish.
“The technicals for equities are crazy… crazy good…I’ve learned over my career the technicals win. You know, even if you believe in the fundamentals, the technicals win more,” Rieder said at Invest.
An easing cycle from the Federal Reserve that the market believes could bring the US to a soft landing also doesn’t hurt. Though Judy Shelton, a former economic advisor and Trump appointee to the Fed, didn’t want to throw the Fed a victory party any time soon.
“We’ve gone through the worst inflation in 40 years and when it comes to accountability… I don’t think that anyone got fired at the Fed,” Shelton said at the conference, who also called into question the Fed’s role moving forward.
“I think this is an interesting time when people are looking at the appropriate role of the Federal Reserve… and maybe rethinking whether we want…the interest rate… the price of capital — do we want that to be set by a dozen people voting eight times a year?,” Shelton said, adding she is also optimistic on the next Trump presidency.
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