NFL midseason predictions for every team: Kirk Cousins wins comeback award; NFC East champ is …?

The first half of the NFL’s 18-week regular season is over and team rosters are set following the close of the 2024 trade window on Tuesday afternoon.

So what can we expect from the league’s 32 teams in the final nine weeks? Which players will have big performances? Which teams will win their divisions — or fall short? Which teams might be facing a coaching or front-office shakeup? Our NFL writers addressed these topics and more in making one prediction for every team heading into the season’s second half.

Arizona will enter its final game with a chance to win the NFC West

After an embarrassing Week 6 loss at Green Bay, the Cardinals had a 10 percent chance to win the West, per The Athletic’s projection model, worst among the division’s four teams. Since then, the Cardinals have won three in a row, their longest win streak since 2021. And their chances for winning the West have increased to a division-best 37 percent. This team trends in the right direction. Helping matters: Arizona’s remaining eight opponents are 29-40, which gives the Cardinals the easiest schedule among West teams. In Week 18, San Francisco visits Arizona. That game decides the division title. — Doug Haller

Kirk Cousins will win NFL Comeback Player of the Year

One year after tearing his Achilles tendon in Week 8, Cousins is fourth in the league in passing touchdowns (17), sixth in yards per game (258.7) and ninth in passer rating (101.9). His stiffest competition will come from Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow. Burrow is ahead of Cousins in every significant passing category, but two factors are working in Cousins’ favor. First, Burrow has already won the award (2021). Second, the Falcons have two more wins than the Bengals, who are in danger of missing the playoffs. If Cousins can snap Atlanta’s postseason drought, that should push him past Burrow. — Josh Kendall

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Lamar Jackson will win third MVP award

Only six players in NFL history have garnered MVP honors three or more times, but Jackson has put himself in position to win his third by playing the best football of his career. He was a near-unanimous MVP choice last year, but he’s taken his game and Baltimore’s offense to another level by doing more at the line of scrimmage, improving his accuracy, making better decisions and attacking every quadrant of the field. Jared Goff, Joe Burrow, Jayden Daniels, Josh Allen, Saquon Barkley and Derrick Henry have all played their way into the MVP discussion, and there is plenty of time for others to enter the mix. However, Jackson is widely considered the midseason front-runner. As long as he stays healthy, there’s no reason to expect a drop-off. He’s on pace to finish with 4,494 passing yards, 38 touchdown passes, four interceptions and 954 rushing yards. It will be tough to stay on that pace, but the game has slowed down for Jackson this year and he has the best offensive supporting cast he’s ever had. Why would you bet against him? — Jeff Zrebiec

Khalil Shakir will collect his first career 1,000-yard season

After an excellent end to the 2023 season, Shakir has picked up where he left off as the team’s primary slot receiver. Most importantly, he’s become one of Allen’s most trusted assets. He is a calming force and as steady as they come, roping in almost every pass thrown his way. On top of that, his yards-after-catch ability has been outstanding all year, possessing great contact balance and providing a good shake on defenders in the open field before contact. Shakir’s role is secure, and as long as he stays healthy, he’s got a legitimate chance to lead the Bills in receiving in 2024. — Joe Buscaglia

Chuba Hubbard will rush for 1,100 yards … and get a new contract

The Panthers haven’t had a 1,000-yard rusher since Christian McCaffrey in 2019. But Hubbard will hit that mark and then some. The fourth-year back is on pace to finish with 1,256 yards, which would be the fourth-highest total in team history. Even with the Panthers activating rookie running back Jonathon Brooks this week, Hubbard will remain the workhorse in the backfield. Hubbard has impressed with his tough, downfield running style, his work ethic and his strong leadership in the locker room. He’s the type of player first-year coach Dave Canales wants to build around, so look for the Panthers to extend Hubbard before the end of the season to keep him from hitting free agency. — Joseph Person

The Bears will pull off another upset of the Lions

It’s not a crazy prediction if you remember that the Bears should have beaten the Lions twice last season. The Bears blew a 12-point lead in the final 4:15 in a 31-26 loss in their first meeting in Detroit. But three weeks later, the Bears defense overwhelmed quarterback Jared Goff in a 28-13 win at Soldier Field after the team’s bye week. Maybe Eberflus has a good read on Goff with a better defense to send after him. Maybe this will be the Bears’ only victory in what still looks like the best division in the NFL. — Adam Jahns

Cincinnati Bengals

Bengals will make playoffs if they beat Chargers, Broncos

You can narrow the Bengals’ playoff picture down to two critical, high-leverage games. It would be safe to assume they should be counted on to beat the Titans, Browns and Cowboys, all struggling with poor quarterback play. Fighting back to win the AFC North is all but off the board. So, they will attempt to rise to the sixth or seventh wild card, acknowledging it will take 10 — potentially nine — wins to make it happen. The Colts, Broncos and Chargers are in the mix with Cincinnati. The Bengals travel to Los Angeles on Nov. 17 and host Denver the last weekend in December. There’s a chance the Steelers come back to the pack with a brutal second-half schedule, and the Bengals will need to at least split against them, but gaining those tiebreakers against Denver and Los Angeles has a great chance to cast the deciding vote in one of those seeds. — Paul Dehner Jr.

Cleveland Browns

Browns shake up front office and move on from either their GM or chief strategy officer (or both)

Considering the failures of the Deshaun Watson trade, the offensive line carousel in 2024, the contract uncertainty across the offense going forward and the number of draft misses, I just can’t imagine team owners Jimmy and Dee Haslam viewing this massive failure as acceptable. A lot can happen in the next two months, but if the most expensive roster in NFL history produces three or four wins, it’s hard to see the Haslams allowing this front-office group to make crucial decisions going forward. — Zac Jackson

Dallas Cowboys

Brandon Aubrey will set the record for longest field goal

Aubrey almost had a chance to set the record in Week 1, when he made a 66-yarder in Cleveland that didn’t count due to a penalty and the ensuing 71-yard attempt was called off by holder Bryan Anger. The Cowboys are about to be led by backup quarterback Cooper Rush for the foreseeable future. There’s a decent chance the offense stalls around midfield and the Cowboys get desperate for points. There’s also the fact that of the remaining nine games for the Cowboys, six are in the comfortable confines of AT&T Stadium. Maybe Aubrey doesn’t get a chance quite from 70-plus yards but something a hair over 66 yards would not be surprising. — Saad Yousuf

Denver Broncos

Courtland Sutton will become Broncos’ first 1,000-yard receiver since 2019

Since the start of the 2020 season, no Broncos player has had 1,000 rushing or receiving yards. Every other NFL team has put a player in at least one of those categories during that stretch — and most teams have checked both boxes. Sutton can end the Broncos’ streak. Sutton produced the team’s last 1,000-yard receiving season as a second-year player in 2019 (1,112). Phillip Lindsay squeaked his way over the threshold with 1,011 rushing yards that season. Sutton has 499 receiving yards on 36 catches this season, which leaves him on pace for about 943 yards. However, his numbers include a game against the Saints in which he wasn’t targeted. Since then, he’s produced back-to-back 100-yard receiving games for the first time in his career. Sutton has become more of a downfield threat in recent weeks and figures to expand that role as he grows his chemistry with rookie quarterback Bo Nix. That should be enough for Sutton to reach the elusive milestone. — Nick Kosmider

Detroit Lions

The NFC will run through Detroit

At 7-1, the Lions have the best record in the NFC. After a slow start, Ben Johnson’s offense looks like it’s taken another leap. Jared Goff is dialed in and the Lions aren’t asking him to do too much, which has allowed him to complete passes at a near-75 percent clip. Detroit has the most efficient rushing offense in football and all sorts of playmakers. Even without Aidan Hutchinson, Detroit ranks 5th in points per game allowed thanks to a tight red-zone defense and an opportunistic safety tandem of Brian Branch and Kerby Joseph. The addition of Za’Darius Smith should help bolster the defensive line. This team has all the makings of a No. 1 seed, and I think they get it done. — Colton Pouncy

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Xavier McKinney will be named a first-team All-Pro

The Packers lead the NFL in takeaways through nine weeks with 19, largely because of their free-agent signing at safety. McKinney is tied for first in the NFL with six interceptions. There have been three games in which he hasn’t intercepted a pass. Against the Cardinals, Kyler Murray only attempted three passes of at least 15 air yards, per Next Gen Stats. Against the Texans, C.J. Stroud attempted five. Against the Lions, Jared Goff attempted two. Teams aren’t taking shots downfield, likely because McKinney worries them. Most players in the NFL are committed to their craft, but defensive backs coach Ryan Downard told a neat story about McKinney last week. Downard and McKinney were on different buses on the way from the Jaguars’ stadium to the airport after the Packers’ Week 8 win, but McKinney wanted a head start on Lions preparation. McKinney texted Downard, who has been on Green Bay’s defensive staff since 2018, about his familiarity playing the Lions. “He was urging me, encouraging me, to get him that tape as soon as possible,” Downard said. — Matt Schneidman

Houston Texans

Houston will repeat as AFC South champion

The Texans don’t have the easiest second-half schedule. It begins with a home game against Detroit, proceeds with a run of struggling opponents (Dallas, Tennessee, Jacksonville and Miami), and then comes back-to-back dates with Kansas City and Baltimore before a finale against Tennessee. Moving up from their current fourth-place spot in the AFC will prove challenging but the Texans, at 3-0 in the AFC South, have a healthy division lead. The Titans and Jaguars are battling for one of the top draft picks, and the Colts are limited. Houston will repeat as AFC South champions and try to carry that momentum into the postseason. — Mike Jones

Indianapolis Colts

Anthony Richardson will not play again this season

When Colts head coach Shane Steichen benched Richardson in favor of 39-year-old Joe Flacco, that was the nail in the coffin of Richardson’s six-game reign as QB1 this season. Indianapolis will sink or swim with Flacco. If the team stacks wins and makes the playoffs, the reasoning for the switch will be easier to justify. However, if the Colts pile up losses, it would be a terrible look for the franchise to go back to Richardson and ask him to try and steer a sinking ship. — James Boyd

Jacksonville Jaguars

Jacksonville will be a sought-after destination if there’s a coaching change

If coach Doug Pederson doesn’t create enough momentum toward 2025, the Jaguars will likely replace him, and there’s reason to believe it’ll be a coveted job with the chance to tap into Trevor Lawrence’s potential and work for an owner who has devoted significant resources into the facilities in recent years. Coaching candidates hope for two built-in resources: a franchise quarterback and stability from ownership. The Jaguars have been trending more in that direction than earlier in Shad Khan’s stewardship. — Jeff Howe

Kansas City Chiefs

DeAndre Hopkins will lead the Chiefs in receiving touchdowns

This could be a knee-jerk reaction after Hopkins’ impressive start with the Chiefs since they acquired him two weeks ago from the Titans. But Hopkins is the Chiefs’ most sure-handed receiver and he can still win one-on-one matchups, which he did Sunday in scoring two touchdowns against the Buccaneers. Did you know rookie Xavier Worthy leads the Chiefs with just three receiving touchdowns? Most opponents will still focus on Travis Kelce in the red zone, which should lead to plenty of opportunities for Patrick Mahomes to find Hopkins in the end zone. — Nate Taylor

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Antonio Pierce will make it to Year 2 as head coach

As the Raiders’ season has gone off the rails, speculation about Pierce’s job security has intensified. His in-game decision-making has been heavily criticized and the coaching staff hasn’t been able to find any consistent success. But owner Mark Davis isn’t itching to make his third coaching change in three years. He hoped the Raiders would be more competitive, but he knew Pierce was inexperienced and would endure growing pains.

“He’s young as a head coach. He’s learning how to be a head coach,” Davis said last month. “He’s surrounded himself with a lot of good people. He’s just got to grow into the job. It’s his first year, really. What he did last year was phenomenal. … We’ll be OK.” — Vic Tafur and Tashan Reed

Los Angeles Chargers

Justin Herbert will be MVP of the second half

Herbert is playing some of the best football of his career since the bye. His accuracy is on point. He is pushing the ball downfield without taking too much risk. His mobility is improving as time passes since his early-season high-ankle sprain. That is leading to scramble yards, impressive sack avoidance and off-script playmaking. The injury and slow start will prevent him from entering the MVP conversation in earnest. But the past two games are up there with some of the best quarterbacking I have seen from Herbert. If he can stay healthy, I think he’s going to be the best player in the league over the second half of the season. — Daniel Popper

Rams will stay hot through November and December

The Rams will most likely get starting center/guard Jonah Jackson back from IR for this week’s game against Miami, and could even get starting guard Steve Avila back as well depending on how his practice week goes. Second-year receiver Puka Nacua will get healthier after a scare with his knee last week (and he’ll stay in games, too, after learning from his ejection against Seattle). Los Angeles has won three consecutive games and heated up around this time in 2023, too. If Matthew Stafford and running back Kyren Williams can get this offense off the ground in the pass and run phases instead of stalling out on drives, the Rams will be dangerous in November and make a playoff push. — Jourdan Rodrigue

Miami Dolphins

The Dolphins will be competing for a wild-card spot in Week 18

Making the playoffs seems like a far-fetched proposition for 2-6 Miami, but there is reason to hang on to some hope. The Dolphins have one of the easiest remaining schedules in the NFL, and the middle class of the AFC isn’t exactly filled with world-beaters. If quarterback Tua Tagovailoa can stay healthy and get this offense humming again, Miami could climb back into the race. Granted, this might be one of those situations where the Dolphins need a lot of breaks to go their way on the last days of the year, but they’re not out of the hunt yet. — Jim Ayello

The Vikings will win at least 11 games

The Vikings’ preseason projected win total was 6 1/2. Halfway in, they’re already at six. Minnesota has one of the most productive defenses in the NFL and an offense loaded at the skill positions. And the Vikings’ schedule gets easier going forward: Their next six games are against the Jaguars, Titans, Bears, Cardinals, Falcons and Bears. All are winnable, and they should creep closer to 11. If they get there — considering the preseason expectations in a transition year — head coach Kevin O’Connell, defensive coordinator Brian Flores and this locker room deserve a ton of credit. — Alec Lewis

Drake Maye will have a better second half than Caleb Williams

After sitting on the bench for the first five games, Drake Maye has been everything the Patriots hoped for. The rookie is certainly going to have some hiccups along the way, as evidenced by his nine turnover-worthy plays, per Pro Football Focus. But Maye will continue to lead this boom-or-bust offense, and his ability to scramble is important for a Patriots team poor along the offensive line and at wide receiver. This is less a knock on Williams and more a compliment of Maye. Oh, and New England’s next game? That would be Sunday against Williams’ Chicago Bears. — Chad Graff

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New Orleans Saints

The Saints will finish with their worst record since 2005

The dumpster outside the Saints’ practice facility is officially engulfed with flames. The team has been humiliated in back-to-back weeks after being pummeled by Sean Payton and the Broncos at home, followed by a one-point loss at Carolina. New Orleans has a seven-game losing streak, the longest since the Mike Ditka-led Saints in 1999, and now Dennis Allen has been fired. But how many wins can this team compile with Darren Rizzi as interim head coach? My ceiling for the Saints is four wins, which would be the fewest since the 2005 season, marred by Hurricane Katrina and before Payton and Drew Brees arrived in New Orleans. — Larry Holder

QB Daniel Jones will get benched after the Giants’ Week 11 bye

It might not be the first game out of the bye (Week 12 vs. Tampa Bay), but it’s coming. Even if Jones is playing well, which he has at times this season, it’s going to be tough for him to outrun the injury guarantee in his contract and all of the losing. In the end, it’s the results that matter, and the Giants are 2-7 and mired in a four-game losing streak. If the losses keep piling up, it will give coach Brian Daboll the reason he needs to make a change. — Charlotte Carroll

The Jets will finish 8-9

Eight wins would mean the Jets finished the season on a 6-3 run. Ultimately, I think they dug themselves in too deep a hole to turn it all the way around and make the playoffs. Fans (understandably) wouldn’t be happy with falling short of the postseason for the 14th straight year, but that finish might be enough to convince owner Woody Johnson to run it back with Aaron Rodgers, Davante Adams and Jeff Ulbrich in 2025. Whether that would be the right decision is another matter. — Zack Rosenblatt

The Eagles will win the NFC East for second time in Nick Sirianni era

The Washington Commanders (7-2) are unquestionably hot. But, due to the deplorable run defense, they don’t match up well against Philadelphia. The Eagles (6-2), whose young defense continues to improve, are steadily playing their best football. So long as they learn to stay out of their own way, a sweep of the Commanders is possible. Philadelphia still must play the Rams (4-4) and Ravens (6-3), but Washington, too, has toss-up games remaining against the Steelers (6-2) and Falcons (6-3). And the Eagles have managed to win games despite bad luck and bad decisions. — Brooks Kubena

Pittsburgh Steelers

The Steelers will snap a seven-year playoff win drought

Eight seasons in, T.J. Watt has the makings of a Hall of Fame resume. He’s a six-time Pro Bowler, four-time first-team All-Pro and the 2021 Defensive Player of the Year. But one thing he hasn’t done? Win a playoff game.

That will change this year. Watt is the catalyst for the NFL’s second-best scoring defense, which has been near championship-caliber for most of the five years since Minkah Fitzpatrick arrived in 2019 — good enough to push Pittsburgh into the playoffs but not to overcome a dysfunctional offense. With Arthur Smith and Russell Wilson, the Steelers finally have enough offense. This will be the year that coach Mike Tomlin wins his first playoff game since 2016 and Watt finally advances beyond the opening round of the playoffs. — Mike DeFabo

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San Francisco 49ers

The 49ers will be neck and neck with one rival

The 49ers, who are projected by The Athletic’s model to have a 38 percent chance to make the playoffs, probably will have to win their division to get in and their biggest competition for that honor will be the Rams.

The Rams, the team that embraced trading away draft picks a few years ago, have come full circle in making strong selections in recent seasons that promise to fuel their future success.

The teams’ Week 15 rematch in Levi’s Stadium — a Thursday night affair — will be huge. And the 49ers’ season finale, a throwaway game last season, already looms large considering it’s against a division opponent, the Arizona Cardinals, the 49ers fell to in Week 5. — Matt Barrows

Seattle Seahawks

DK Metcalf will be Seattle’s only Pro Bowler

The Seahawks have four returning Pro Bowlers (Julian Love, Devon Witherspoon, DK Metcalf and Geno Smith), including two alternates (Metcalf and Smith). All four are having decent seasons, but it feels like a long shot for anyone outside of Metcalf to be named to the original ballot this year.

This prediction is based on a theme through the first half of the season: Seattle has not consistently maximized the talent on its roster. Smith, Love, Witherspoon, Riq Woolen, Leonard Williams, Boye Mafe, Derick Hall and Ken Walker III have elite skills, but that’s not being reflected in the on-field product with any regularity. — Michael-Shawn Dugar

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Mike Evans will get to 1,000 receiving yards

Through nine games, Evans has only 335 receiving yards, which makes him the third-leading receiver on the Bucs and the 65th-leading receiver in the NFL. And he’s currently out with a hamstring injury. But there are reasons to believe Evans will finish strong. He has a history of playing through injuries, so it is not unreasonable to think he can return on Nov. 24 against the Giants, which would give him seven games to get 665 yards. That also would give him three more weeks of healing. When he does return, he will likely be the centerpiece of the Bucs’ offense, which now is missing Chris Godwin. And Evans will be motivated. If he gets to 1,000, he will tie Jerry Rice’s record for most consecutive 1,000-yard seasons with 11. — Dan Pompei

Tennessee Titans

Will Levis will return and play his way out of the Titans’ future plans

It’s of course possible that Levis, whose sore right shoulder has kept him out of three straight games, could come back and put it all together. He probably doesn’t need to put it “all” together to be part of some kind of QB competition heading into 2025. But Levis’ play before he got hurt was so discouraging — not seeing the field well enough, seeing things late, missing throws even when he saw them, taking wild risks — that it’s hard to imagine enough of a reversal this season. The Titans need to give him as much opportunity as possible, though, before resolving to come up with a new plan at QB. — Joe Rexrode

Washington Commanders

Rookie Mike Sainristil will make big strides

Sainristil, a second-round cornerback with more physicality than his 5-foot-10 physique suggests, lived inside the lines through two games. According to PFF, Sainristil played 76 of 101 snaps from the slot. But things changed by Week 3. Emmanuel Forbes Jr. needed thumb surgery after the season opener. His replacement, Michael Davis, lost his spot in the rotation after Giants rookie Malik Nabers torched the eight-year veteran. Since Noah Igbinoghene primarily helps in the slot, the coaching staff moved Sainristil to the perimeter. Sainristil played 61 of 62 snaps on the outside in the Monday night victory at Cincinnati. Of his 64 snaps in Sunday’s win over the Giants, 56 were out wide.

We’ve seen the fearless tackler enter the fray despite his limited size. Assuming recently acquired Marshon Lattimore and Benjamin St-Juste are the tandem in two-cornerback sets, Sainristil would sit down in three-safety looks. Regardless of the number of snaps he gets, Sainristil will be playing his more natural position in the slot, which should increase his development and production. — Ben Standig

(Top illustration: Dan Goldfarb / The Athletic; photos of Khalil Shakir, Kirk Cousins,and Xavier McKinney: Perry Knotts, Cooper Neill and Ric Tapia / Getty Images)