To start or sit a rookie QB? That’s the question coaches, analysts keep debating

During March’s league meetings, reporters huddled around Sean Payton, one of football’s quarterback philosopher kings.

Between questions lobbed in his direction and with the upcoming NFL Draft a primary focus, the Denver Broncos head coach shared what would later become more than a passing thought about rookie quarterbacks.

“There’s a topic that I see and read about sometimes, and you guys would know this,” Payton said inside a ballroom at the swanky Orlando Ritz-Carlton. “Is it better to sit behind a starter or get thrown into a fire?”

Payton highlighted the Green Bay Packers’ lineage of Brett Favre, Aaron Rodgers and Jordan Love and the benefits of the multiyear education each replacement received by watching a longtime starter still slinging at the peak of his powers.

“That’s invaluable,” Payton said. “And yet, there are times when you don’t have that luxury.”

For those aware of history, the query may have sounded purely hypothetical. Denver’s last rookie Week 1 starting quarterback was John Elway in 1983. Payton, former coach of the New Orleans Saints, had never opened a regular season with a first-year passer under center.

One month later, with a roster lacking an obvious starter after releasing Russell Wilson, a Super Bowl champion but a poor fit for Payton’s scheme, the Broncos selected Oregon’s Bo Nix with the 12th overall pick. Payton’s hypothetical about the start-sit debate, one every franchise has faced over the decades, had become reality.

Denver drafting Nix meant six franchises in 2024 put themselves into this situation. Three plan to start their rookies in Week 1: the Chicago Bears and Washington Commanders, who drafted Heisman Trophy winners Caleb Williams and Jayden Daniels, respectively, and the Broncos with Nix.

The duo selected with the first and second overall picks by organizations long searching for an answer at the sport’s most valued position were always considered part of this club. Nix’s summer work turned him into a potential member. Minnesota Vikings rookie J.J. McCarthy’s chances ended when he suffered a season-ending knee injury. The Patriots’ Drake Maye, the No. 3 pick, may quickly ascend New England’s quarterback depth chart.

Tennessee Titans first-time head coach Brian Callahan is among those who believe the sooner incoming quarterbacks start, the better.

“That’s the one thing I’ve always believed,” said the ex-Cincinnati Bengals offensive coordinator who taught rookie day-one starter Joe Burrow. “The idea that quarterbacks learn more by sitting? I don’t subscribe to that.”

Organizational details are rarely the same, yet this highly scrutinized choice is always a defining moment.

Three-time Super Bowl-winning coach Andy Reid has tackled this matter before. The first start for Donovan McNabb, the Philadelphia Eagles’ No. 2 overall selection in the 1999 draft, came in Week 10. With Kansas City, Reid kept 2017 rookie Patrick Mahomes as Alex Smith’s backup except for an essentially meaningless Week 16 start despite the Chiefs boldly trading up from pick 27 to 10.

“The toughest thing for these young guys is the blitz game and the different coverages and disguises they’re coming into,” Reid said. “I believe in giving (the rookies) an opportunity, if you can, to see those things before you throw them in.”

With three titles in five Super Bowl appearances, plus other trips to the conference championship game, one can say waiting worked for Reid. However …

“I think there’s no substitute for playing,” Callahan said. “There’s no easier way to learn lessons than going through them physically.”

Green Bay’s offensive-minded head coach Matt LaFleur’s experiences led to a different conclusion.

“I do believe that some guys, if they’re thrown in there too early, get scars and start to lose their confidence,” LaFleur said in Orlando.

C.J. Stroud, the 2023 Offensive Rookie of the Year, is a prime example of a passer who “comes in and lights the league on fire,” LaFleur said. Knowing most rookies won’t experience such steady highs, the Packers coach emphasized, “You want them to have a great knowledge base and maintain their confidence through the ups and the downs.”

A competitive player aware of Stroud’s exploits, Daniels recently told The Athletic, “Everybody’s path is different. C.J.’s rookie year was phenomenal. … Not too many rookies come in and do that.” At the same time, others needing more seasoning can “have a lot of success in the future.”

No matter how bold or shaky the start-sit stance, one constant refrain from either camp sounds like a famous Whitney Houston lyric. The kid passers are our future. Teach and develop them well, and then let them lead the way. If only it were that simple.

“The hardest thing to do in sports, I think, is evaluate and develop a quarterback,” Commanders general manager Adam Peters said. “You want to make sure you do as much as you can to let them develop.”

The assessment from former NFL quarterback EJ Manuel, a 2013 first-round pick by Buffalo, comes from lived experiences.

“You have to have an infrastructure in place around him for development. That’s the most important part. Fans don’t have that patience, but those in charge have to,” Manuel said.

“If you don’t, you’ll look up in two years and return to the same place.”

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McCarthy’s college coach and former NFL quarterback, Jim Harbaugh, altered his opinion over time.

The 1987 late first-round quarterback waited three seasons before becoming a full-time starter. That likely contributed to the new Los Angeles Chargers head coach previously sharing Reid’s broad view. The 14-year NFL veteran and coach of the 2012 NFC champion San Francisco 49ers once saw the “big jump” from college to the pros as comparable to J.V. to varsity and high school to college football.

Harbaugh turned to second-year quarterback Colin Kaepernick over the experienced Smith as the 2012 49ers pushed for a championship. Last college football season, with McCarthy, a two-year starter and future top-10 selection, Harbaugh coached Michigan to an undefeated national championship. Two months after winning the title, Harbaugh explained why he’d changed his tune.

“I’ve noticed that jump is not as big anymore,” Harbaugh said in Orlando during the AFC coaches’ breakfast. “Guys are coming from high school to college, and the quarterback is one of those positions now where they’re ready. … Going from college to pro, they’re able and ready to play quicker. Why is that? Probably a bunch of reasons, but they are well-trained coming out of high school (and) college.”

After an extraordinary final college season that catapulted his draft stock, Daniels is a perfect avatar for Harbaugh’s stance.

“Jayden probably made more progress than any quarterback coming out in the last five or six years,” one scout told The Athletic before the draft.

Washington acquired veteran signal callers over the years, including McNabb, but there’s no hope like first-round pick quarterback hope. Daniels is the third since 2012 for Washington when Robert Griffin III had fans believing the team’s quarterback struggles were over.

Despite new coach Dan Quinn half-heartedly pushing a summer quarterback competition, there was little doubt Washington would immediately start the prized rookie.

Though Daniels, 23, is older than some of his draft class peers, the Commanders never let him skip developmental steps.

“Let’s get really good, kick ass at this, and then we move on,” Quinn said this summer. “It doesn’t all have to be in one week or one month.”

The Commanders revamped nearly their entire football infrastructure before choosing Daniels, a five-year college starter at Arizona State and LSU who turns 24 in December.

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Hiring the defensive-minded Quinn brought a first-tier people-person to an organization desperately needing a hug. The offense’s “help wanted” sign remained until former Arizona Cardinals head coach Kliff Kingsbury was convinced to become Washington’s offensive coordinator.

Kingsbury tutored Mahomes and Heisman Trophy winner Johnny Manziel in college and guided another passer with access to the mythical Heisman House, the Cardinals’ Kyler Murray. That might be considered enough to aid Daniels. But the Commanders didn’t stop there.

Brian Johnson, the Eagles quarterbacks coach when 2020 second-round pick Jalen Hurts developed into an MVP candidate, became Washington’s assistant head coach and pass-game coordinator.

Quinn retained former Stanford quarterback Tavita Pritchard as Washington’s quarterbacks coach and hired David Blough, an active quarterback the previous five seasons, as the assistant quarterbacks coach. Super Bowl XXII hero Doug Williams returned to Washington’s front office.

“We got a bunch of former quarterbacks on the (staff),” said Kingsbury, a standout playmaker at Texas Tech. “Pointers, tips, things we can help him grow and expedite the process, we’re here for it.”

New England expanded its staff by hiring T.C. McCartney as its first quarterback coach in years. Former NFL quarterback — and recent Italian League player — Ryan Griffin joined Chicago’s staff.

The purposeful signing of another Heisman winner, Marcus Mariota, put a mentor in Washington’s quarterback room for Daniels. The No. 2 selection by Tennessee in 2015, Mariota considers the first two seasons the best of his career partly due to the veterans in the Titans’ quarterback room “who took care of me. … We’re trying to create that type of atmosphere here for Jayden.”

Manuel could only dream of such infrastructure.

“I didn’t get that luxury,” he lamented.

Manuel, the 16th pick and the lone quarterback selected in the first round in 2013, started the first five games as a rookie despite undergoing meniscus surgery soon after the Bills’ second preseason game. Kevin Kolb, Buffalo’s ersatz version of experienced help, also suffered a preseason injury. That left Buffalo and first-year head coach Doug Marrone with three options: use undrafted free-agent rookie Jeff Tuel, acquire/pay another vet or rush Manuel’s recovery.

“They more or less turned to me and said, ‘Hey, it’s been three and a half weeks. Let’s get out there,’” Manuel recalled during a phone call last month. Though not fully recovered, the rookie obliged. Following a promising opening chapter, Manuel bookended his pain by injuring his other knee.

He missed the next four regular-season games and six overall. Though he entered 2014 as Buffalo’s starter, Manuel was benched after four games. He didn’t throw another pass that season — Marrone’s last season as the Bills’ head coach — made three starts over the final two years of his rookie contract and was out of the league after the 2017 season.

Buffalo’s fixation on the short term rather than a years-long vision isn’t an anomaly.

Consecutive failures with top-three picks Sam Darnold and Zach Wilson punctuate the New York Jets’ eight-year stretch without a winning record. Both were traded after three seasons. In the quarterback desert after 2015 MVP Cam Newton lost his Superman cape, Carolina saw Darnold as a potential fix. That experiment fizzled. Two seasons later, the Panthers shipped a massive haul of assets to Chicago for the right to select Bryce Young first overall in 2023.

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Young endured a classic example of what happens when a newbie is paired with arguably the NFL’s most unstable franchise. The Panthers finished with a league-worst 2-15 record as Young was sacked 62 times. Meanwhile, having endured their version of quarterback purgatory for decades, the Bears drafted Williams No. 1 in April with a pick acquired from the Panthers.

Manuel’s broad advice is to let young quarterbacks “sit at least the first six games” to learn the clutch details of the job. Ideally, and beyond organizational patience, that would require a proven starter already on the roster. Having drafted Michael Penix Jr. this spring at No. 8 after signing Kirk Cousins to a massive multiyear contract, Atlanta will likely continue this approach for at least two seasons. But the shortage of viable starters means not everyone has that luxury of time.

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For those who want to turn to the data for unequivocal answers on how quickly to start a rookie quarterback, think again.

Analytics guru and defense-adjusted value over average (DVOA) creator Aaron Schatz has studied the options. “Every research project we’ve done on this has ended with this answer: ‘I don’t know.’”

Every side of this debate can cherry-pick Super Bowl titles and individual awards to claim conclusive proof. Schatz says only one standard for Year 1 exists when looking at outcomes for the 59 first-round quarterbacks this century.

“The typical norm for a rookie quarterback is to be below average,” said Schatz. “Even for a top pick or one who eventually turns out to be good.”

Defining “franchise quarterback” is nebulous and, from a debate/conversation perspective, often exhausting. Since finding a player who will be under center for years beyond his rookie contract is the primary goal, exploring the paths for those first-round picks who did or didn’t receive a contract extension might be illuminating. The list, pulled from TruMedia, begins in 2000 but includes neither the three selected in 2023 nor this year’s six.

• Week 1 starters. Of the 22, eight received a second consecutive contract from their original team: Burrow, Joe Flacco, Trevor Lawrence, Andrew Luck, Murray, Cam Newton, Matt Ryan, Matthew Stafford

• Debut before Week 7. Of the 43 rookies in this category, 13 received a second consecutive contract from their original team: the initial eight names, Josh Allen (Week 2 debut), Justin Herbert (2), Daniel Jones (3), Ben Roethlisberger (3), Alex Smith (5)

• Debut Week 7 or later. Of the 13 in this category, six received a second consecutive contract from their original team: Jared Goff (11), Lamar Jackson (11), Mahomes (16), Eli Manning (11), Tua Tagovailoa (8), Michael Vick (9)

• Starting debut after drafted season. Of the 10 rookies, six received a second consecutive contract from their original team: Daunte Culpepper, Jordan Love, Carson Palmer, Chad Pennington, Philip Rivers, Aaron Rodgers

By the money math, waiting beyond the first season might seem like the winning approach. LaFleur coached Rodgers, who began his career with three years as Favre’s backup, and Rodgers’ replacement, Love, a 2020 first-round selection. The luxury of having a four-time MVP meant not even considering rushing the Utah State alum’s development.

“It’s hard when a guy loses his confidence to recover from that,” LaFleur said.

David Carr never did entirely. Selected first overall in 2002 by the expansion Houston Texans, Carr started all 16 games as a rookie and was sacked 76 times. That remains the single-season high for any quarterback. Carr remained a full-time starter until 2006 and stayed on NFL rosters through 2012, but he never finished a season with over 16 touchdowns or a winning record as a starter.

The counterpoint? Peyton Manning, the first overall selection in 1998, led the league with 28 interceptions as the Colts went 3-13 in his rookie season. The smooth road to Canton began the following year.

Playing the waiting game is old school. Of the 10 quarterbacks making their first start in Year 2 or later, only Love was drafted after 2011. Love’s impressive first season as a starter led to him receiving a contract extension this summer that put him among the highest-paid quarterbacks.

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Before the draft, many expected the teams that selected Maye, 22, or McCarthy, 21, to allow a longer adjustment period for the inexperienced quarterbacks. The Patriots announced last week that Jacoby Brissett, a longtime spot starter and high-end backup, would be the Week 1 starter over Maye.

Landing on contending teams benefits any quarterback. Rodgers replaced Favre after Green Bay lost the NFC Championship Game following the 2007 season. Culpepper ascended to QB1 for a Vikings team coming off a 10-6 regular-season record and playoff appearance.

McCarthy’s injury officially gave Darnold a third and likely final chance to start, this time under the direction of head coach and play caller Kevin O’Connell.

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“So much depends on whether you have at least an average starter to use and the coach’s job security,” Manuel said. “Kevin O’Connell has that kind of time. He could have let J.J. McCarthy watch and learn before the knee injury.”

Based on a pre-draft interview with Daniels, Manuel dubbed him a “student of the game.” With a confident but even-keeled vibe, Daniels doesn’t back off the hype surrounding his draft status or the juxtaposition against RGIII, Stroud and other successful rookie quarterbacks.

“It’s going through the ups and downs, through adversity. I don’t compare myself to C.J.,” Daniels said. “It’s a competitive thing. I’m not coming in and expecting I will have a rookie year like that.”

Despite his analytical glass-half-empty analysis of rookie starters, Schatz conceded a silver lining.

“The expectation has to be that a rookie quarterback has to be bad, but there is hope,” he said. “That, at least, as a fan, gives you something to hang your hat on.”

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Washington’s intrigue surrounding Daniels intensified with its pre-draft homework on the quarterback whose electric running, Peters said, “kind of takes your soul as a defense.” Then, the internal conversation shifted to how they could improve him, no matter the tutoring pace.

“Whether that takes three months or three games or whatever, putting somebody into a space before they’re ready can be detrimental,” Quinn said. “That can set you back. You don’t want any setbacks.”

Coaches sought to protect Daniels this summer, emphasizing reps in two joint practices over preseason action, even if the rookie sometimes couldn’t quiet his aggressive nature. Quinn worked with Daniels in the preseason on the timing of his pregame routine while trainers helped set a weekly regimen.

The effort must go both ways — and it has. Daniels impressed teammates with his crack-of-dawn agenda by consistently beating them to Washington’s practice facility. Terry McLaurin lauded the rookie’s penchant for staying late to work with receivers, something Daniels did last week after the Commanders signed ex-Texan Noah Brown.

Washington’s vision of altering its locker room culture included acquiring several notable veterans. In between basketball trash-talking with Bobby Wagner — and the linebacker calling out the offense’s play in practice — Daniels picks the brain of the future Hall of Famer for confirmation on what he sees with the defensive scheme.

Coordinators “get you figured out and make you so confused or play a little bit slower,” said Manuel, an ACC Network and SiriusXM college football analyst. “That half-second leads to tipped balls and interceptions and sacks.”

And in some instances, failure. History shows that only some teams are well equipped to help those attempting to play this fragile position.

Don’t blame salaries. The 2011 collective bargaining agreement severely limited rookie contract loot. “It’s not the money,” Manuel said. “Guys don’t get paid like Sam Bradford anymore. Maybe it is just the excitement, the unknown.”

Reid cites human nature. “People aren’t patient, so fan bases are impatient,” he said. “A lot of times, it can put a lot of pressure on that player.”

On the other hand, some feel that waiting a half-season or longer to play a highly drafted quarterback won’t help them eliminate negative qualities.

“There are hard lessons to learn in this position. They need to play, and they need to learn them,” Callahan said. Tennessee’s coach inherited strong-armed 2023 second-round pick and nine-game rookie starter Will Levis. “I think that the more that happens quickly, the better.”

There are few conclusions in the start or sit debate, but Washington and other teams with first-round rookies now and in the future must take logical steps toward helping the cause. Otherwise, history is bound to repeat itself.

(Top photo of Jayden Daniels: Mitchell Leff / Getty Images)