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With the Kansas City Chiefs playing Monday night, it was a chance for the rest of the AFC’s best to show off on Sunday. The Ravens, Bengals and Chargers all put together blowout wins, while the Bills overcame some red-zone follies against Miami thanks to Tyler Bass’ right leg.
TYLER BASS!!!!!!!!!!!!
📺: @paramountplus pic.twitter.com/0YUMp5a5qI
— Buffalo Bills (@BuffaloBills) November 3, 2024
Meanwhile, the Eagles survived some self-inflicted wounds and the Dallas Cowboys stumbled again, this time in Atlanta. The Athletic NFL writers Mike Jones, Ted Nguyen and Michael Silver share their thoughts on all of these storylines and more.
The Eagles had some “situational football” issues that made it a dogfight against the Jaguars (fourth-down and two-point conversion misses, two tush push failures before abandoning it, a missed 57-yard field goal late, etc.). Is game management a significant issue going forward, or is this just a couple of fluky plays?
Jones: I don’t think these are deep-seated issues to worry about. I think you have to consider the situations, including who the Eagles were playing, as well as Nick Sirianni’s track record. He is an aggressive coach, and he saw those fourth-down and two-point conversion attempts as an opportunity to put more pressure on the Jaguars. They didn’t work, and that made for a closer game than the Eagles would have liked, but none of those calls wound up costing them. We see Sirianni gamble like this often, and when those calls work he’s praised for his gutsiness. I don’t know if we would have seen Sirianni repeatedly go for two against a more formidable opponent, but he probably had two-fold reasons for his decisions in this game. The “tush push” is no longer the unstoppable force it was with Jason Kelce at center, and the Eagles would like to regain their dominance here. So you could argue that running these plays against hapless Jacksonville represented an ideal low-risk opportunity to work on those scenarios for the future.
Silver: For Sirianni, this is a good problem to have. Sure, he’s been getting crushed for dubious decision-making and getting rattled by heckling fans, but he just defeated his predecessor (Doug Pederson) to go 6-2 and stay within a half-game of the Commanders in the NFC East. And given that there was a reasonable chance he could have been fired after last season’s collapse and Philly’s uninspired one-and-done postseason performance, he should take the W, give thanks and get ready to play two big divisional games (against the Cowboys and Commanders) in the next 11 days. Did I love Sirianni going for two on three occasions, and failing each time? Nah, but the analytics expert who talks to him via his headset probably did, especially after an offsides penalty moved one of the attempts to the 1-yard line. Did I love him having Jalen Hurts throw for the end zone on a fourth-and-1, eschewing a 43-yard field goal attempt? Nope, especially because it didn’t work. Remember all the clock-management complaints about Andy Reid during his Philly tenure? Sirianni is creating a new generation of coach-questioners. Oh, and the tush push? That’s so 2023, when Jason Kelce was creating the leverage (and treating defenders like they were cell phones belonging to rude college kids who’d just dissed his brother).
Nguyen: The Eagles’ philosophy has always learned toward aggressive decisions. They’re an analytically based team and that approach has served them well for the most part. Sometimes it doesn’t work out, but they believe that in the end it gives them an edge. That being said, I thought some of the two-point attempts were unnecessary, and attempting a long field goal late in the game with a five-point lead when Jake Elliott was struggling was ill-advised. I don’t see their game management as an issue moving forward — generally, Sirianni makes good decisions. Of course, people will bemoan some of the more aggressive decisions when they don’t work out, but aggression wins games.
That’s three straight wins and four of five for the Cardinals — is this a playoff team?
Nguyen: The Bears defense against the Cardinals offense was a battle of strength vs. strength. The Cardinals like to put multiple tight ends on the field to force defenses into their base defense (four defensive backs). Against base defenses, the Cardinals lead the league in explosive play rate (14.9 percent) and are third in offensive success rate (52.4 percent). The Bears defense led the league in defensive success rate with their base defense. At the end of the day, the Bears defense got outmuscled by the Cardinals’ physical and unique offense; Arizona rushed for 213 yards, including a 53-yard run when the Cardinals were essentially conceding, likely intending to run the clock out in the first half. The Cardinals desperately need a pass rusher, but their offense is going to give a lot of teams trouble. They have four division games ahead and they’ll play three teams with losing records outside of their division. I thought the Cardinals would be a frisky team this year, but they’re in position for a playoff berth. Their defense needs to continue to improve, though.
Jones: It’s a little early to make any type of declaration when it comes to the NFC West, where everyone is hovering around .500. The Cardinals have shown a lot of grit in these last three weeks, beating the Chargers 17-15, Dolphins 28-27 and now the Bears 29-9. And they can help themselves with a win over the Jets next week before they enter their bye week. But they still have to play the Seahawks twice and the Rams and 49ers once each. They also have what should be a tough game against Minnesota, along with winnable games against New England and Carolina. If they can continue to execute with balance on offense, and if they can get some pass-rushing help at the trade deadline, which they’ve been burning up the phones in hopes of doing, then the Cardinals have a legit shot at the playoffs for the first time since 2021. But again, this is going to be a tight race down the stretch of the season, so we’ll have to wait a while longer before we can make a call on this.
Silver: Um … well … maybe? For one thing, someone has to win the NFC West, and if the 49ers don’t go on one of their typical second-half runs under Kyle Shanahan, the Cardinals are very much in the mix. They have two remaining games against the Seahawks, one against the Rams and close the season at home against San Francisco, a team they’ve already beaten. Arizona’s other opponents? The Jets, Vikings, Patriots and Panthers. The Cardinals have a legitimate running game, and Kyler Murray is playing a more mature brand of football than in past years. They seem reasonably clutch, too. It’s all there for the taking.
After Week 9 wins by the Ravens, Bills, Bengals and Chargers, who is the second-best team in the AFC?
Jones: It’s Baltimore. It was good to see the Bengals look more like themselves, but let’s be honest, it was the Raiders. The Chargers are improving, but they’re not elite. Buffalo is very good, yes. But the Bills are not quite on the same level as the Ravens, and I’m not just saying that because they got throttled by Baltimore earlier this season. I have the Bills in a tier just below Kansas City and Baltimore. The Ravens have the more well-rounded offense, led by Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry, who should both receive MVP consideration and can single-handedly take over games. They have some work to do on defense to achieve the level of consistency of which they’re capable, but they definitely deliver some game-changing plays on that side of the ball as well.
Nguyen: Easily the Ravens. They made one of the best defenses in the league look like child’s play. Again, Jackson looked calm, cool, collected in picking apart the defense. Zay Flowers looks healthy again and he was phenomenal after the catch. The secondary is still spotty — they gave up several big plays in the passing game but they tightened up in the red zone, allowing only one touchdown in four trips. The Bills have been impressive as well. The offense missed Amari Cooper’s presence today but Josh Allen played at an MVP level and led them to a win. Both the Bengals and Chargers are elite on one side of the ball but very bad on the other.
Silver: Not to be boring, but the Ravens are the obvious call. Jackson is a game-changer, and the addition of Henry — the best running back of his generation — has taken the offense to another level. (Shoutout to all the NFL teams that decided not to pursue Henry when he was a free agent.) Defensively, I think Baltimore will improve down the stretch. Right now, I believe in the Ravens more than I believe in the Bills, who have all but wrapped up the AFC East [checks notes…] before Election Day, and who just took down the desperate Dolphins on a 61-yard Tyler Bass field goal, outdoors, in Western New York, in the heart of autumn. Allen can carry this team a long way. If you don’t have an elite quarterback, don’t even bother trying to insert yourself into the “Who Will Win the AFC?” conversation.
Do you have any confidence that the Cowboys will play a meaningful game after Christmas?
Silver: Last Sunday night, after the Cowboys fell short against the 49ers, a Dallas executive told me, “I have this bad feeling that this could be one of those years.” A 27-21 defeat to the Falcons, in which quarterback Dak Prescott was sidelined with a hamstring injury, should fortify that sentiment. Despite owner Jerry Jones’ “all-in” proclamations, the 2024 season has been shrouded in bad vibes since the spring. The team was passive in free agency, neglecting to pursue Henry (oops) and instead bringing back Ezekiel Elliott, who stayed home Sunday for disciplinary reasons and may not be long for the roster. Jones waited until the last minute before getting massive deals done with Prescott and CeeDee Lamb while pushing pass rusher Micah Parsons’ negotiations to next offseason. Parsons, who has missed the last four games with an ankle injury, is surely being advised not to return until he’s absolutely healthy. Unless Prescott elevates his game to the point where his massive salary ($240 million over four years) seems like a bargain, the Cowboys can devote their focus after Christmas to planning New Year’s parties and Cancun trips.
Nguyen: The Cowboys didn’t treat the offseason seriously; they have a thin roster and they’ve been hit hard by injuries. There really aren’t any more buttons for them to push — this is not a serious team. The Eagles are playing better and Washington looks like one of the best teams in the NFC. If it weren’t for the ineptitude of the Giants, the Cowboys would be bottom dwellers. The defense sells out to stop the run because they don’t have a choice, and they routinely get beaten over the top. They can’t protect Prescott and he has no one to throw to consistently outside of Lamb. We should be merciful and not speak of them again until they show they are a serious team.
Jones: Define “meaningful.” The Cowboys may own a disappointing 3-5 record following Sunday’s loss to Atlanta, and they certainly are plagued by all kinds of ills, and Mike McCarthy has no apparent cures up his sleeve. But Dallas still has five NFC East games to go in the final nine weeks of the season, including Philadelphia and Washington twice apiece. Those games are almost always knockdown, drag-out affairs where anything can happen. So, there are plenty of meaningful games remaining for Dallas. Do I think they can turn their season around and reach the playoffs? No. But I see a 7-10, 8-9 finish as realistic.
Was Sunday’s blowout loss in Baltimore an indication of the “real” Denver Broncos, or just a blip for a wild-card contender?
Nguyen: The Broncos ran into a buzzsaw in Baltimore. Bo Nix has been playing better and he made some plays on Sunday but couldn’t finish in the red zone. Denver has an elite defense but Baltimore’s offense presents unique challenges the Broncos won’t see every week. That score doesn’t indicate how good this Broncos team actually is. I don’t think they are a playoff team this year but they’re going to be a competitive team every week, and opponents won’t look forward to playing them. Considering where they were after the disastrous Russell Wilson trade, this isn’t a bad place to be as far as long-term team-building.
Silver: This wasn’t a blip — the Broncos aren’t nearly in the Ravens’ class, and with Baltimore coming off a disappointing defeat to the Browns, this outcome was somewhat predictable. Vance Joseph’s defense, which had been so good through the first eight games, was essentially powerless against Jackson, Henry and friends. And yet … seven teams make the watered-down playoffs in each conference these days, and it’s certainly plausible the Broncos could be one of them. The AFC East and AFC South don’t have a ton of wild-card contenders at the moment, and Denver has some very winnable games (at Raiders, Browns at home, Colts at home, at Chargers) remaining, along with some tougher ones (Chiefs twice, Falcons at home, at Bengals). Despite Sunday’s beatdown, the Broncos — even if they lose their next two games, to the Chiefs and Falcons — can keep hope alive.
Jones: The Broncos are a young, still-developing team. The Ravens — a true powerhouse with Super Bowl aspirations — should have walloped them like that. But the loss doesn’t mean Denver is trash, it just isn’t anywhere close to elite. If Baltimore had struggled against Denver, then we would have been really concerned. But instead, we saw a legit contender handle business and the upstart squad take its lumps. The Broncos probably have another rough day in store next week against the Chiefs, but a wild-card berth is a realistic goal for Sean Payton, Nix and company. They might come up short, but they will at least be in the mix down the stretch as long as they continue to make the improvements we have seen during the first half of the season.
(Top photo: Mitchell Leff / Getty Images)
