Mandel’s Final Thoughts: Amid great change, Penn State losing to Ohio State stays the same

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And now, 20 Final Thoughts from Week 10, when eight ranked teams had the week off. They got to sit at home and watch nearly half of the other ranked teams go down.

1. Amid a season of unprecedented change in college football, one tradition remains alive and well: Penn State losing to Ohio State.

The teams entered the game trending in opposite directions. The third-ranked Nittany Lions were undefeated, while the fourth-ranked Buckeyes’ prior two games were a road loss to Oregon and a near-disaster against Nebraska. Ohio State (7-1, 4-1 Big Ten) even spotted James Franklin’s team an early 10-0 lead thanks to Will Howard’s pick six. Didn’t make a difference.

For all the optimism generated by first-year offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki, Penn State (7-1, 4-1) went from scoring one offensive touchdown in last year’s 20-12 Ohio State loss to none in this year’s 20-13 defeat. After star tight end Tyler Warren ran around the end for 33 yards to get down to the 3-yard line with 6:47 left, he never saw the ball again. Drew Allar handed off to Kaytron Allen up the middle three straight plays, then threw incomplete into the end zone on fourth-and-goal at the 1, and Ohio State ran out the final 5:13.

2. Now, for the requisite disclaimer: Penn State’s College Football Playoff hopes remain perfectly intact. This is a 7-1 team with road wins against West Virginia, USC and Wisconsin. It will be heavily favored in its final four games. Win out, and it’s likely hosting a first-round game. None of that changes the fact Franklin is 1-10 against the Buckeyes and 1-13 against AP top-five teams during his time at Penn State. Nothing about him or his program inspires any confidence the Nittany Lions would do anything other than go one and out in a tournament full of comparable foes.

But first, he has to get there.

3. Ohio State’s Ryan Day, who has been dealing with his own recent “Can’t win the big one” stigma, needed this one badly. He improved to 3-6 versus top-five foes, which is not great but still better than contemporaries like Steve Sarkisian (2-8 at Washington/USC/Texas), Lincoln Riley (1-5 at Oklahoma/USC), Brian Kelly (1-8 at Notre Dame/LSU) and of course, Franklin. It just feels worse because three of Day’s six losses were to Michigan.

Ohio State’s offensive line, now with All-America guard Donovan Jackson starting at left tackle due to injuries, was much better in the running game than last week, and Jim Knowles’ defense got more pressure on Allar than it did Oregon’s Dillion Gabriel a few weeks ago.

4. My one concern for Ohio State is the same one I had after the Oregon loss: Is Howard (16 of 24 for 182 yards, two TDs, one INT) reliable enough to lead a team to a national title? In addition to his pick six, Howard fumbled for a touchback while stretching for a touchdown that would have put the Buckeyes up 21-10. This was on the heels of his poor decision-making at the end of the Oregon loss. To his credit, Howard picked up two third downs with his feet on Ohio State’s game-sealing drive. He does a decent enough job getting the ball to the Buckeyes’ gifted receivers. He doesn’t need to be C.J. Stroud, but he does need to hold on to the ball and keep an eye on the clock.

5. For whatever reason, Georgia quarterback Carson Beck, a projected first-round pick before the season, just doesn’t have it this year. He threw three interceptions against Florida, giving him 11 in his last five games, which allowed the underdog Gators to hang around far longer than they should have after quarterback DJ Lagway suffered an awful hamstring injury, forcing Florida to send in third-string walk-on Aidan Warner for the second half. The second-ranked Dawgs (7-1, 5-1 SEC) finally scored two late touchdowns to win 34-20.

When it’s on, Georgia has been the best team in the country, as seen when the Dawgs demolished Clemson in Week 1 and Texas two weeks ago. But Kirby Smart’s team squeaked by against Kentucky, bombed in the first half at Alabama and struggled against Florida. Which version will show up next week at Ole Miss?

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6. Poor Billy Napier cannot catch a break. First, incumbent quarterback Graham Mertz sustained a season-ending ACL injury on Oct. 12, and now Lagway, who threw a 43-yard touchdown on Saturday, is out with what Napier called a “pretty significant” injury. Warner, a redshirt freshman who began his career at Yale, may be the starter when Florida visits Texas next week and perhaps beyond that. The Gators (4-4, 2-3) have improved quite a bit this season, but it still might not be enough to save Napier if more losses start piling up.

7. I can’t say I’m surprised No. 10 Texas A&M (7-2, 5-1 SEC) suffered a letdown after its huge win over LSU, but South Carolina’s 115th-ranked offense unexpectedly exploded in the Gamecocks’ 44-20 win over the Aggies. Former Arkansas running back Rocket Sanders shredded A&M to the tune of 144 yards rushing and 92 yards receiving, and quarterback LaNorris Sellers was effective with his arm (13 of 27, 244 yards, two TDs, 0 INTs) and legs (15 carries, 106 yards, one TD). Shane Beamer’s team (5-3, 3-3) isn’t winning the SEC, but in its past three games, it lost by two points to Alabama, drilled Oklahoma on the road and doubled up a top-10 A&M team.

With that, there are no remaining SEC teams with perfect conference records. Georgia and Texas A&M are tied for first, but Tennessee (4-1), Texas (3-1) and LSU (3-1) are all tied in the loss column as well.

8. Ole Miss’ Lane Kiffin is about to face his Franklin crossroads moment. The 19th-ranked Rebels (7-2, 3-2 SEC) seem to have no trouble with the teams they should beat (other than Kentucky, of course). They went to Fayetteville and destroyed Arkansas 63-31, with Jaxson Dart throwing for 515 yards and six touchdowns, and wide receiver Jordan Watkins going off for eight catches for 254 yards and five TDs. Three of his scores were for 60-plus yards.

But Ole Miss didn’t spend all that NIL money to beat up on Arkansas and maybe go to the Citrus Bowl. The CFP was always the end game. To get there, Dart, who largely has struggled against the SEC’s top teams, needs to deliver some of those big plays next week when Georgia visits Oxford.

9. No. 1 Oregon (9-0, 6-0 Big Ten) has not missed a beat on the road this season. Gabriel (22 of 34, 294 yards, 1 passing TD, 1 rushing TD) was his usual efficient self in the Ducks’ 38-17 win at Michigan (5-4, 3-3). Wolverines quarterback Davis Warren (13 of 23, 165 yards, two TDs, 0 INTs) made some nice plays, and Michigan got to the Oregon 10 in the fourth quarter with a chance to get within one score. But on fourth-and-5, Sherrone Moore called a bizarre trick play, with receiver Semaj Morgan attempting to throw to backup QB Alex Orji. The Ducks … were not fooled.

Oregon suffered a potentially costly injury, losing top receiver Tez Johnson early in the game. His status was undisclosed. Traeshon Holden (six catches, 149 yards) and Justius Lowe (six catches, 45 yards) stepped up in his place.

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10. Michigan must go from facing the nation’s No. 1 team this week to the nation’s most dominant team next week. No. 13 Indiana (9-0, 6-0 Big Ten) fell behind 10-0 early at Michigan State (4-5, 2-4), the Hoosiers’ first deficit of the season, then turned around and smoked the Spartans 47-10. Indiana, 9-0 for the first time in program history, notched seven sacks and 15 tackles for loss. Quarterback Kurtis Rourke, back after missing last week, threw four touchdowns.

I’m fascinated to see how the committee treats the Hoosiers. They have not played a great schedule, but they’ve clobbered everyone they’ve played, scoring 40-plus points in seven of their nine games. My hunch is they’ll be higher than they are in the AP and coaches polls than the CFP rankings.

11. Louisville coach Jeff Brohm, going back to his Purdue days, is always good for at least one big upset a year. The Cardinals (6-3, 4-2 ACC) went to No. 11 Clemson (6-2, 5-1) and built a 26-7 lead, winning 33-21. Louisville’s offense, led by freshman running back Isaac Brown (20 carries, 151 yards), seemed to have the Tigers on their heels all night.

Clemson had won six straight, all by at least two scores. Looking back now, none of the teams it beat currently has a winning record. Its defense, ranked in the top two in the ACC in seven of the past eight seasons, was just seventh entering the weekend. It may be that Louisville was the first team since Georgia capable of exploiting it.

12. That leaves the ACC in a two-team tie for first between No. 5 Miami (9-0, 5-0 ACC) and … No. 20 SMU (8-1, 5-0).

The Canes fell behind 28-17 early in the third quarter against Duke (6-2, 2-3), only to win going away, 53-31. Star quarterback Cam Ward (25 of 41 for 400 yards, five TDs, one INT) and new Miami career receiving yards leader Xavier Restrepo (eight catches, 146 yards, three TDs) have helped lead Miami to its first 9-0 start since 2017. SMU, needing no adjustment period after moving up from the Group of 5, throttled previously undefeated Pittsburgh 48-25. Quarterback Kevin Jennings (17 of 25 for 306 yards, two TDs) and running back Brashard Smith (23 carries, 161 yards, two TDs) lit up the Panthers’ 11th-ranked defense.

Both teams still have work to do, but SMU would not be an ideal ACC championship matchup for the Canes, whose defense gives up a lot of big plays. But Ward has been able to outscore every opponent to date.

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13. The Big 12 is light on elite teams (if it has any) and high on parity — and it’s a heckuva lot of fun.

Star Texas Tech running back Tahj Brooks’ touchdown with 19 seconds left lifted the Red Raiders (6-3, 4-2 Big 12) to a 23-22 road upset at No. 11 Iowa State (7-1, 4-1), the biggest win of the Joey McGuire era to date. Less than an hour later, Houston (4-5, 3-3) rallied from a 19-10 deficit entering the fourth quarter to beat Kansas State 24-19, handing the Wildcats (7-2, 4-2) a costly second conference loss. As a result, No. 9 BYU (8-0, 5-0), which was off, is now alone in first, with the Cyclones and, yes, Colorado (6-2, 4-1), tied for second.

Here’s guessing those won’t be the league’s last race-altering upsets this season.

14. Arizona State running back Cam Skattebo entered Saturday leading the Big 12 in all-purpose yards (161.6 per game) and turned in his finest performance yet in the Sun Devils’ 42-21 win at Oklahoma State. Skattebo ran for 153 yards, caught four passes for 121 yards and scored three TDs in a game delayed by two and a half hours at one point due to weather. ASU (6-2, 3-2 Big 12), picked to finish dead last in the conference, clinched bowl eligibility in coach Kenny Dillingham’s second season. Oklahoma State (3-6, 0-6), which reached the Big 12 title game last season, is mired in the first six-game losing streak of Mike Gundy’s 20-year tenure.

15. Vanderbilt (6-3, 3-2 SEC) got bowl-eligible for the first time in six years on the strength of its defense. The Commodores held Auburn running back Jarquez Hunter to a season-low 50 rushing yards in a 17-7 road win, the program’s first at Jordan-Hare Stadium. (Note: This was only its 10th visit.) With one more victory, Vandy will reach seven wins for the first time since Franklin’s last season there in 2013. It would be a remarkable feat for fourth-year coach Clark Lea, who went 9-27 his first three seasons before successfully upgrading his lineup via the transfer portal. TCU transfer edge Randon Fontenette had 2.5 tackles for loss and a pass breakup.

16. Fifth-year Baylor coach Dave Aranda looked to be down to his last days when the Bears, 3-9 last season, began this season 2-4. But Baylor (5-4, 3-3 Big 12) has won three straight games since. Led by freshman running back Bryson Washington’s 29 carries for 196 yards and four TDs, the Bears bested rival TCU 37-34 on a walk-off 33-yard field goal, two years after the Horned Frogs (5-4, 3-3) did the same thing in a November game in Waco. Students stormed the field afterward and partied like it was the 2021 Big 12 championship season all over again.

Baylor lost on a Hail Mary to Colorado on Sept. 22. If not, this team easily could have been among the jumble of league contenders right now.

17. Only one team has not trailed this season: No. 21 Army (8-0). The Black Knights’ offense wasn’t as powerful as usual without star quarterback Bryson Daily, but running back Kanye Udoh’s career day (22 carries, 158 yards, two TDs) helped Army to a 20-3 win over Air Force (1-7). Coach Jeff Monken did not detail what injury or illness kept Daily out of practice and the game but said he’s hopeful the QB, who has accounted for 26 touchdowns this season, will be back next week against North Texas.

Army and Tulane (7-2, 5-0 AAC) are the last remaining AAC teams with undefeated records in conference play.

18. After running 31 times for 149 yards and two scores in Boise State’s 56-24 rout of San Diego State (3-5, 2-1) on Friday night, Ashton Jeanty has run for 1,525 yards and 20 TDs. He’s averaging 170.0 yards in conference play for the Broncos (7-1, 4-0 MWC). At that pace, he’d finish a 13-game regular season with 2,375 yards, third-most ever behind only Barry Sanders (2,628 in 1988) and UCF’s Kevin Smith (2,448 in 2007).

Boise State’s next foe is Nevada, currently 0-4 in Mountain West play. Recalibrate your calculators now.

19. It’s no longer a given that Nebraska will end its eight-year bowl drought. A week after nearly taking down Ohio State on the road, the Huskers (5-4, 2-4 Big Ten) somehow lost 27-20 at home to UCLA (3-5, 2-4) in a game the Bruins wrapped up with an interception of a pass that bounced off Nebraska receiver Jacory Barney’s knee. This came after freshman quarterback Dylan Raiola was injured after a hard hit with about six minutes remaining.

Matt Rhule’s team gets a much-needed week off before closing at USC, vs. Wisconsin and at Iowa. Last year’s team started 5-3, then lost its last four. So far, this one is 0-2 since getting to five wins. It’s like Scott Frost never left.

20. But no one has lost more painfully, more frequently than USC (4-5, 2-5 Big Ten). In a classic Pac-12 matchup aired on the Big Ten Network, Washington (5-4, 3-3) topped the Trojans 26-21. USC had two chances to drive for the lead in the last five minutes, but the Huskies stuffed Trojans running back Woody Marks on a fourth-and-goal at the 1, then pressured Miller Moss into three straight red-zone incompletions to seal a 26-21 win.

Understandably, Washington is hovering around .500 given a coaching change and massive attrition following last year’s national title game run. Lincoln Riley has no such excuse to be sitting below .500 this late into his third season.

(Photo of Will Howard: Scott Taetsch / Getty Images)




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