Which college basketball coach is under the most pressure? John Calipari, Mike Woodson and more

When we asked our men’s college basketball writers to name the coach under the most pressure this season, no other guidelines were given and interpretations varied.

Yes, the coach on the hottest seat is the first thing that comes to mind, and as always, several are in that category as the season tips off Monday. But there’s also the pressure of getting close and never quite reaching the place you’ve spent decades chasing (Purdue’s Matt Painter a year ago, and he got there). There’s the pressure of coming off a historic failure and needing to respond with basically the same group (Painter a year ago, and he did; Virginia’s Tony Bennett entering the 2018-19 season, same).

Isn’t it about time Mark Few won the whole darn thing? Can Mark Pope be the rare coach who flourishes at his alma mater (like Painter has)? Speaking of coaches at alma maters, Jon Scheyer went 27-9 in each of his first two seasons at Duke, which is nice, but it’s Duke, and now he has freshman Cooper Flagg on his team so … time to win the whole thing? And what about the guy who won the last two? Surely, UConn’s Danny Hurley is feeling the pressure of everyone expecting the Huskies to do it again, or of no one believing they can — whichever works best.

And now for our actual answers:

John Calipari

Yes, this category probably translates closer to, “Who might get fired if he doesn’t win?” But I’m going existential here. The Calipari epitaph gets written in Fayetteville, one way or another. Either he adjusts and creates an elite roster that can win in modern college basketball and at least threatens to make a couple of Final Fours … or he turns into a kind of Harold Hill, taking the same act to a different town and flailing about, compromising his legacy. It’s fascinating. — Brian Hamilton

Kyle Neptune

Jay Wright is in the Basketball Hall of Fame because he established an extraordinarily high standard at Villanova, including winning two national championships and reaching two more Final Fours — including his final season in 2021-22. Neptune, his replacement, had an unenviable task and has struggled in two seasons at Villanova. Neptune is 35-33 overall and 20-20 in Big East play. Both of his teams finished tied for sixth in the league and lost in the first round of the NIT. Wright’s first three Villanova teams were NIT qualifiers, so there is the precedent that a slow start can yield results in the future. But Neptune could use some positive momentum in Year 3. — Jesse Temple

Kyle Neptune has yet to make the NCAA Tournament heading into his third season at Villanova. (Brad Penner / Imagn Images)

He’s two games over .500 in two seasons since taking over for Wright at Villanova, and the Wildcats missed the NCAA Tournament in both years. Making the dance might not be make-or-break for Neptune in terms of keeping his job, but he desperately needs to show some progress, especially with a top-20 preseason projection from KenPom. — Justin Williams

I was trying to think of someone else, to add a little diversity to this exercise, but Neptune is the slam-dunk choice. After Wright’s tenure, Villanova is not a place where you can miss the NCAA Tournament multiple seasons in a row — and Neptune’s counter is already at two, to go along with a .500 record in Big East play and several high-profile nonconference losses. Following Wright was always an unenviable position, and Wright’s blessing probably earned Neptune a little patience, but it’s hard to imagine him surviving a third season without making the Big Dance. — Brendan Marks

Mike Woodson

The former NBA coach has won one NCAA Tournament game through three seasons, and Indiana’s donors opened their pocketbooks to give the Hoosiers a roster equipped to get back to the tournament (after missing last year). Getting there might not be enough, though; Indiana fans are ready to see IU look more like a blue blood again and start going on tourney runs. If Woodson doesn’t win with this group, he’ll probably lose the fan base. And if Indiana alum Dusty May is successful in Year 1 at Michigan, a lot of Hoosiers fans will be upset IU didn’t make a move for May this past offseason. — CJ Moore

With Painter taking Purdue to the NCAA championship game a year ago, all Hoosier eyes are on Woodson to try to match it. IU has the talent, and it snagged some good pieces in the portal. If the Hoosiers can’t get into the top third of the Big Ten and win a game or two in the NCAA Tournament, there are going to be some long conversations, especially if Painter continues to win up the road. — Scott Dochterman

Ron Sanchez

The answer is Neptune, but I’ll switch it up. If we’re talking pressure — real pressure — then you have to look at Sanchez. The 51-year-old will be coaching for his job every night. Sanchez previously spent five years as Charlotte’s head coach, going 72-78 overall, and leading the 49ers to a 22-win season in his final year. In 2023, he left the school and returned to an assistant coaching position under Bennett. Now he has the chance to be a high-major coach in a marquee post. Bennett’s departure is a clean handoff, but now it’s a question of whether Sanchez can hold on. If he doesn’t, he’ll be without the UVA head job and the head coach he spent most of the past 25 years alongside. — Brendan Quinn

Porter Moser

The easy answer would be Neptune, as he is 35-33 with no tournament appearances, two sixth-place Big East finishes and two NIT first-round exits, but I will go with Oklahoma’s Moser. In three seasons in Norman, he has yet to finish higher than seventh place in the conference and has made it to the NIT only once. Oklahoma is in the SEC now so it’s time for a reset, but the Sooners were picked to finish 15th in the SEC preseason poll. Changing leagues might not fix their roster issues. — Tobias Bass

Tom Izzo

Izzo is coaching to win another national championship, as has been the case since his first, in 2000. But he doesn’t have a team that looks quite up to it, as preseason rankings reflect. He doesn’t have the same program he used to have, either, as recent results reflect. Michigan State has double-digit losses in four straight seasons for the first time in his tenure. Since Izzo’s last Final Four in 2019, he’s 4-4 in the NCAA Tournament with no seed higher than No. 7 and one advance to the second weekend. He’s not a huge fan of the transfer portal, MSU has been finishing second lately with some of its top high school targets, and Izzo turns 70 in January. He shrugs off retirement questions, but he has also long vowed he wouldn’t go out with things in decline, as some of his legendary peers have. That puts a ton of pressure on this season to reassert the Spartans. — Joe Rexrode

(Photo of Mike Woodson: Rich Janzaruk / USA Today Network via Imagn Images)