Tennis rankings that really matter near the end of the season? No. 32 and No. 104

Chatter about the rankings in tennis generally focuses on the smallest numbers.

That was the case last week, when Aryna Sabalenka overtook Iga Swiatek for the top spot in the WTA rankings for the second time in her career.

Neither player should expect much change in her day-to-day existence or quality of life. Setting aside the bonuses that some players may receive from sponsors for finishing the season in the top 10 or the top 20, at this time of year the most meaningful ranking races involve the scratching and clawing to get in and around No. 32 and No. 104.

Why? Finish the year between No. 25 and No. 45, and you’ve got a great to outside shot at being seeded at the Australian Open, the first Grand Slam of the year, which begins mid-January.

Few sports reward their upper-class more than tennis. High-ranked players don’t have to play anyone in their ranking neighborhood until the later rounds of a big tournament and they are more likely to get byes, which means automatic money and rankings points. Success generates opportunities for more success.

Someone who knows all about this is Naomi Osaka, who played the 2023 Australian Open as an unseeded wild card in her second tournament since giving birth to her daughter. Osaka, a two-time champion in Melbourne, got bounced by Caroline Garcia, a tough No. 16 seed, in the first round. A seeded player won’t face anyone ranked higher than them until the third round.

At the start of this season’s run of tournaments in Asia, Osaka openly said that her goal was to be seeded for Melbourne. (And to avoid Caroline Garcia.)

Down the ladder, at 104 or lower you’re getting or hunting a spot in the Australian Open main draw and the roughly $80,000 (£61,700) guarantee it brings. That may not sound like a lot of money compared with winner’s checks of $3million (£2.3 million) but it can be life-changing cash for players struggling to cover travel expenses and pay a coach.

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In October, November and January, a few hot weeks can make a big difference. In the late season, deep runs at Grand Slams and 1000-level tournaments sap the top 20 of energy, before the top eight players convene for the Tour Finals in Turin, Italy for the men and Riyadh, Saudi Arabia for the women.

Then come Australian Open tuneup time, the buffet of 250- and 500-level tournaments in Australia and New Zealand usually excludes the biggest of big names. Both parts of the season open up possibilities of a big jump — or fall — in the rankings, with bunches of players all the way down separated by just a few points.

More than 6,500 points separate Sabalenka, the world No. 1, from Danielle Collins, who is No. 10, in the WTA rankings. Just 714 points separate Osaka at No. 59 from Marie Bouzkova, the world No. 32. On the ATP Tour, world No. 1 Jannik Sinner is 8,350 points clear of Alex De Minaur at No. 10, but No. 32 Alexander Bublik is just 572 points clear of Roman Safiullin at No. 60.

Here are just a few of the players who will be playing close attention to the numbers next to their names in the next few weeks — or in January, as injury, the other scourge of late-season tennis, puts the brakes on progress and / or occasions some nervous looking over of shoulders.

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Naomi Osaka

The four-time Grand Slam champion turned 27 on Wednesday. She’s up to No. 59 after being ranked No. 833 on January 8 this year. That’s progress, but she desperately wanted to get into the top 32 to avoid the bad luck she had with draws at the Grand Slams this year. 

After losing to Garcia in Australia, Osaka faced Swiatek at the French Open, losing a classic in the second round. At the U.S. Open she had to beat Jelena Ostapenko, the No. 10 seed, to get to the second round, where she lost to Karolina Muchova — another player who fell down the rankings from the upper echelons and is working her way back up. Muchova ended up making the semifinals.

Osaka suffered a back injury during an even match against Coco Gauff in Beijing a couple of weeks ago, which for now has ended her efforts to climb further; she announced Monday she was out until 2025.  Too bad. Osaka was playing well and the safety of the top 32 appeared within reach. She would need a title and some favorable results for other players to make it come Melbourne.

Ons Jabeur

Just before the U.S. Open, Osaka knocked 2022 and 2023 Wimbledon finalist Ons Jabeur out of the National Bank Open in Toronto. It proved to be Jabeur’s last match of the season, as a persistent shoulder injury and a chronic knee problem derailed her 2024. In the latest edition of the WTA rankings released October 28, she finally slipped outside the top 32, meaning she will have work to do in January’s warm-up tournaments if she wants to be seeded for a return to action in Melbourne.

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My game in my words. By Ons Jabeur

Leylah Fernandez

Fernandez, the 2021 U.S. Open finalist, is right on the bubble at No. 34 — and don’t think she doesn’t know it. Few players are as attuned to the rankings as the Canadian, who has the grit and intelligence to beat just about anyone on any given day. 

She has wins against Elena Rybakina, Madison Keys and Barbora Krejcikova this season — Krejcikova won Wimbledon a little more than two weeks after Fernandez beat her at Eastbourne en route to reaching the final of that grass court tournament.

She may not play another tournament ahead of the Billie Jean King Cup Finals, where players don’t receive points. 

Katie Boulter 

Some 16 months ago, Boulter’s ranking was in the high eighties. A tournament win in San Diego earlier this year sent her shooting up the charts. 

She’s now ranked at No. 30, salvaging a disappointing Asian swing with a semifinal appearance at the Pan Pacific Open in Tokyo to earn 168 points and, more importantly, three places in the rankings. 

Falling short in her bid to win her third title of the year may still have given her the confidence needed to secure her place in the safe zone over the next few weeks.

Robin Montgomery

Montgomery, a promising 20-year-old American from Washington, D.C. is right on the Grand Slam cut line at No. 106. 

Injuries to higher-ranked players would probably get her a spot in the Australian Open if it took place next week, and Montgomery is the definition of a player who could use a main draw slot.

She doesn’t come from wealth and has battled some injuries that have slowed her progress. She survived qualifying at Wimbledon earlier this year, and won her first-round match against Australia’s Olivia Gadecki. A spot in the main draw in Melbourne would be a good way to start a new year. 

Matteo Berrettini

Berrettini’s career has largely been cursed since his run to the Wimbledon final in 2021. Injuries. Covid. Bad draws — the big Italian has endured a little bit of everything. 

The 28-year-old is ranked No. 41, fewer than 200 points away from Alexander Bublik at No. 32. For Berrettini, that should feel closer than shouting distance. The only tournaments left are basically indoors on hard courts in Europe, the perfect place for a player with a thumping serve and sledgehammer of a forehand. 

If Berrettini can get himself seeded again, he becomes a player no one really wants to face in the third round because his serve can take the racket out of a lot of players’ hands. Then again, he spent the past year as the other kind of nightmare draw — a former Grand Slam finalist floating around the middle of the top 100 — and got beaten in the round-of-64 at both Wimbledon and the U.S. Open by Sinner and Taylor Fritz respectively.

Brandon Nakashima

Any player who goes into a prolonged slump need only look to Nakashima for inspiration.

Battling injuries and drops in confidence, Nakashima — who has made the last 16 at Wimbledon and the U.S. Open — saw his ranking drop to 151 near the end of last season. He has spent the past two years bouncing between Challenger and main tour events, and he has gotten himself back up to No. 38. 

That represents a solid year of work. He’s 120 points out of the top 32. The American has a game that should get some results on fast, indoor hard courts. He’s surely kicking himself for losing to 39-year-old Stan Wawrinka in Stockholm this month. 

Tomas Machac 

Machac, the 24-year-old Czech, should be in the land of safety at No. 27 and has all the tools to climb higher. Carlos Alcaraz learned that this month in China, when Machac beat him in the quarterfinals in Shanghai by hitting his peak level for pretty much the entire match. (The final score was 7-6, 7-5. Alcaraz is quite good.)

A seeded Machac will be one of the players to keep an eye on in 2025. He has so many tools and so much talent but he has yet to showcase it in the biggest events. 

His mind can drift and he has said he is prone to doubting himself, but if he has the opportunity to play his way into tournaments, he could become very interesting.

Chris Eubanks

Wasn’t Chris Eubanks a Wimbledon quarter-finalist a year ago? Yes he was. 

Well, he’s No. 119 in the world now and back playing Challenger Tour events to try to get back into the neighborhood of main draws. 

He needs wins, especially after that loss in a deciding set tiebreak against Arthur Rinderknech in the first round of the U.S. Open. He doesn’t need that many of them; fewer than 100 points separate him from No. 104, Damir Dzumhur of Bosnia-Herzegovina.

(Top photo of Ons Jabeur:  Vaughn Ridley / Getty Images)