College Football Playoff 2024 projections: Tennessee or Ole Miss for the final at large?

With Georgia’s 31-17 win over Tennessee, the 8-2 Vols may be headed toward the dreaded “first team out” distinction. I’ll be curious to see whether the committee leaves them ahead of 8-2 Ole Miss this week. The Rebels have two Top 25 wins (Georgia and at South Carolina) to Tennessee’s one (Alabama), but they also have a bad home loss to 4-6 Kentucky. I still think it will be Ole Miss above Tennessee for the last at-large spot.

The wild card is Indiana — if the Hoosiers get blown out this week by Ohio State. While it’s hard to imagine an 11-1 Big Ten team getting left out, this one could finish the season without beating a single opponent that finishes above .500. I’m sticking with IU for now because the committee generally believes one loss is better than two. (See Texas.)

With BYU suffering its first loss, against 4-6 Kansas, it’s difficult to see the Big 12 getting a second team in the field. In fact, I think the Big 12 title game will be 10-2 Colorado vs. 10-2 Arizona State. I saw some suggest Boise State, if it finishes 12-1, could be ranked higher than the Big 12 champ and get the No. 4 seed. But whoever wins that league is going to add at least one, possibly two Top 25 wins between now and Dec. 8. Unless it’s a three-loss Big 12 champ, that team will leapfrog Boise State.

(Photos of Nico Iamaleava, Jaxson Dart, Dale Zanine / Nelson Chenault / Imagn Images)