2025 NFL Draft: Projection model ranks 5 teams most likely to pick No. 1

In the waning minutes of the Carolina Panthers’ win over the New York Giants this past Sunday, I began pondering the ramifications the outcome would have on the 2025 NFL Draft.

Even 10 weeks through the season, so many teams still have a legitimate shot at securing the No. 1 pick. Eleven teams have only two or three wins right now, so every loss matters. And some matter more than others when you’re talking about the draft order. The Giants losing to the similarly putrid Panthers gives New York a far better chance of securing a spot near the top of the draft than Carolina has now.

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But are the 2-8 Giants the favorites to land the No. 1 pick? Nope. Not according to my NFL Projection Model.

With the model’s help, we’re going to analyze the five teams that have the best chance to secure the top spot in the draft. As a reminder, the model simulates the season more than 100,000 times to come up with the most likely outcomes. And though those simulations are typically used for playoff and Super Bowl projections, they don’t discriminate against bad teams and can also project the draft order.

Among the most important factors when figuring out which team is most likely to pick No. 1 is simply its record. That’s painfully obvious, but it needs to be stated. A single win can go a long way: Remember when the New York Jets’ back-to-back victories over the Los Angeles Rams and Cleveland Browns a few years ago cost them the chance to draft Trevor Lawrence? The second major part of this equation is each team’s remaining schedule. Factoring in a team’s record and its remaining strength of schedule, we can paint a pretty good picture of who is most likely to have the opportunity to draft their next franchise quarterback or Colorado’s two-way star, Travis Hunter — the new No. 1 on Dane Brugler’s most recent draft big board.

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Raiders’ odds of picking No. 1: 30 percent

Why are the Raiders No. 1? Two reasons. First, they have the 12th-hardest schedule remaining for the rest of the season. Second, my projection sees the Raiders as the second-worst team in the NFL, behind only the Panthers. And honestly, if you told me that by the end of the season, the Panthers would project better than the Raiders, I’d believe it. The Panthers seem to have a direction within their organization. I’m not sure the Raiders can say the same.

The Raiders play five teams in the playoff race the rest of the way and two others — the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and New Orleans Saints — that are slated to get healthier as the season progresses and won’t be easy wins, by any means.

Key remaining game: Week 16 vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (2-8)

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Giants’ odds of picking No. 1: 15 percent

As I mentioned, losing to the Panthers was huge for the Giants’ draft position. Not only do they now own the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Panthers — if it comes to that, strength of schedule is the first tiebreaker in determining draft positioning — but the Giants lost! No team wants to lose, but for a team in desperate need of a quarterback, losing the rest of the way is in its best interest (though you could probably say that about most teams on this list).

The Giants face an average schedule the rest of the way (18th hardest), which, paired with the loss to the Panthers, puts them at No. 2 in these rankings.

Key remaining game: Week 14 vs. New Orleans (3-7)

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Panthers’ odds of picking No. 1: 12 percent

Though it will benefit the Panthers to lose games, they’re likely prioritizing the maturation of 2023 No. 1 pick and starting quarterback Bryce Young. The Panthers will certainly benefit from adding high-quality talent to their roster, but Young rebounding from the disastrous start to his career would be far more beneficial as they look to turn things around. And if that means a few more wins and a slightly worse draft position, so be it.

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As for the schedule, the Panthers are in the middle with an average remaining schedule (15th). The nice thing for them is that I project them as the worst team in the NFL (most notably due to their defense), so wins will be hard to come by. The only team with three wins or fewer that they face the rest of the season is the Dallas Cowboys. However, their Week 13 game against the Bucs is the one to circle because they have a decent shot of pulling off an upset there, which would greatly hurt their chances of picking No. 1.

Key remaining game: Week 13 vs. Tampa Bay (4-6)

Browns’ odds of picking No. 1: 10 percent

The Browns find themselves in the all-too-familiar position of being on the verge of picking in the top five. Though this franchise has, in some ways, trended in the right direction over the past few years, the Deshaun Watson trade looks to have set it back to square one.

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Now, the Browns are probably the best team on this list — and by a decent bit — but they play the fifth-hardest remaining schedule. That’s going to take its toll on the win column.

The fate of the Browns’ first-round pick next year will likely depend on the next three weeks. Cleveland faces New Orleans at home in what should be a coin-flip game, though the Browns should probably be the favorite in that one. Then they play the Pittsburgh Steelers at home on “Thursday Night Football” before taking on the Denver Broncos. If they overachieve in that stretch, they’ll fall out of the running for the No. 1 pick, but an 0-3 run would give them a good shot at picking first.

Key remaining game: Week 11 at New Orleans

Jaguars’ odds of picking No. 1: 9 percent

This one is the toughest because of the uncertainty regarding Lawrence’s injury. I project Lawrence to miss four weeks, so that gives the Jags the edge over the New England Patriots and Tennessee Titans for the No. 5 spot on this list. However, if he returns sooner and is healthy, the Titans — who still have two games remaining against Jacksonville — would move up to this spot.

That said, the Jags have been horrific this year, even with Lawrence in the lineup. They have a relatively easy upcoming slate, so they might start winning, but even with Lawrence projected to return, it’s hard to see this team winning more than five games.

The key part of the Jaguars’ schedule will be weeks 16 and 17 against the Raiders and Titans. If Lawrence returns, they will be favored in those games. If he doesn’t, they’ll be underdogs.

Key remaining game: Week 17 vs. Tennessee (2-7)

Five more teams with the best chances to pick No. 1

• New England Patriots (3-7): 9 percent
• Tennessee Titans: 8 percent
• Dallas Cowboys (3-6): 3 percent
• New York Jets (3-7): 2 percent
• New Orleans Saints: 2 percent

(Photo: Adam Pretty / Getty Images)