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As professional golf’s fall season continues and the sport remains in its general offseason, it’s a good time for The Athletic to dive into some broader debates and discussions about what we expect in 2025. Consider it a chance to engage in barroom golf discussion. If you have any topics or ideas you want to hear about from our writers, please do suggest them in the comments.
This time, we’re debating how many major championships some of the world’s best men’s golfers will win in their lifetime. This is Part 1 — we’ll discuss Rory McIlroy, Xander Schauffele and more next time.
Scottie Scheffler o/u 6.5 majors
Right now: 28 years old, two majors
Brody Miller: Under
I’m as high on Scheffler as anyone, but nobody other than Tiger Woods has made the jump to seven wins in the last 40 years. Tom Watson was the last outside of Woods, winning eight from 1975 to 1983. Even Lee Trevino and Phil Mickelson at six each came with outside-the-norm major wins at 44 and 50. Scheffler competes in a time with Xander Schauffele, Jon Rahm, Rory McIlroy, Collin Morikawa, Bryson DeChambeau, Brooks Koepka and Justin Thomas (all with multiple majors) still in their contention windows, plus plenty of young golfers coming up without one like Ludvig Åberg and Viktor Hovland. Golf isn’t the NBA, where you generally feel like the best team and stars come away with the title most years. Scheffler has been the undeniable best golfer in the world for roughly three years now. He won two majors out of 12. It’s really, really hard. Six would be an incredible accomplishment.
Gabby Herzig: Over
Out of any active players on either the PGA Tour or LIV, Scheffler has the best chance at making a Tiger-esque separation from the rest and winning a historic number of majors for his generation. I’m not saying he’s going to win 15, but from what I’m seeing right now in the men’s professional game, he is in the best spot to build an elite resume and capitalize on the majors specifically. I’m a firm believer in the longevity of Scheffler as a player, his ball-striking consistency, his unique ability to prevail on the toughest tests and his approach to improving his own game — he is only focused on the fundamentals. I don’t see that among other elite players. It’s not hard to imagine Scheffler winning two majors in a season, like Schauffele did this summer. Then, after that, he’d only have three more titles to knock off to hit the “over.” And he’s only 28 years old.
Brooks Koepka returned from an injury to win the 2023 PGA Championship. (Warren Little / Getty Images)
Brooks Koepka o/u 6.5
Right now: 34 years old, five majors
Miller: Under
What would you put the odds of Koepka winning another major at — 40-60? 30-70? That’s not a slight. If he wins another it will not be a surprise, but it will further mark Koepka as one of the 21st century’s greatest competitors. Because he’s a 34-year-old golfer making boatloads of money on LIV who didn’t finish in the top 25 of a single major in 2024. It’s important to remember that even an elite golfer like Koepka goes into majors with an implied probability of winning of 8 percent to 10 percent in his best stretches. Can he win two more? Certainly. He’s different from normal golfers. It’s just a lot to ask.
Herzig: Under
Koepka is a killer in the majors, that’s without a doubt. But two more at 34 years old with a questionable knee? I can’t exactly fathom it. Players go through peaks and valleys in their playing careers, and yes, Koepka is attempting to climb his way back up. But since securing his fifth major at the 2023 PGA Championship, Koepka has one top-20 finish in the game’s most prestigious events. The LIV Golf schedule and format won’t undergo significant renovations anytime soon, and right now, it’s not proving to enhance the games of its best players (DeChambeau the glaring exception). Over the next few years, I don’t see Koepka elevating enough to win two more majors against players like Scheffler and Schauffele.
Jon Rahm’s 2023 Masters win was his second major. (Christian Petersen / Getty Images)
Jon Rahm o/u 3.5
Right now: 29 years old, two majors
Miller: Over
Rahm had a really bad year in public perception. And he had a really frustrating year at majors, going T45-CUT-WD-T7. But it would be a massive mistake to view that as the reality. He remains one of the four best golfers in the world. He’s still No. 3 on DataGolf. And even if we concede something was off in the spring (my guess is the public criticism got to him), from June on Rahm was fantastic. He finished seventh at the Open Championship, won two LIV events, should have won the Olympic gold if not for a historic collapse, and had a run of three straight top-seven finishes on the DP World Tour the last month. The point is Rahm hasn’t fallen off. He’s not even 30 yet. Rahm gets to five.
Herzig: Over
My critique of LIV from a competitive standpoint still holds for Rahm. Though there were a variety of factors, just look at the Spaniard’s 2024 tournament record compared with 2023. But I still believe he has two more majors in him. He’s a young 29, he’s still settling into a new phase in his career, and as a Masters champion, we already know his game is suited to the venue that men’s golf returns to every year. I’m especially bullish on Rahm’s ability to win another Masters. If Rahm can figure out how to capitalize on the LIV structure as DeChambeau has, he’ll make it happen.
GO DEEPER
Why Justin Thomas could be headed to a comeback year in 2025
Cameron Smith joined LIV right after his 2022 Open win and hasn’t been the same since. (Stuart Franklin / R&A via Getty Images)
Cameron Smith o/u 1.5
Right now: 31 years old, one major
Miller: Over
Smith is going to win one more weird major. I’ve never been more sure of something. I am ready to doubt Smith will ever get back to that 2021-2022 run, when he was one of the best golfers in the world. I’ve conceded the fishing-loving, go-with-the-flow Aussie probably lost some fire with north of $100 million banked and a chill LIV lifestyle. All the power to him. But even as his game’s declined, he has three top 10s in the last seven major starts. He always plays well at Augusta, a place where people can age gracefully. I’ll be shocked if Smith gets to three majors. But I’ll be just as shocked if he doesn’t win one more scrappy Open or Masters.
Herzig: Under
I’m going with the under here because logistically, Smith has to turn things around pretty quickly if he wants to keep winning majors. He hasn’t won an event outside of LIV since the Australian PGA Championship in November 2022, and T6-T-63-T32-MC wasn’t exactly a promising major performance in 2024. Smith will be exempt into The Open until he’s 60 years old, but unless the Australian puts up some results in the next few years, his major shelf life is expiring. Smith is only exempt into the Masters, PGA and U.S. Open through 2027. The clock is ticking for the 31-year-old to re-establish himself on the biggest stages.
Offseason wrist surgery has Jordan Spieth’s future in question. (Tracy Wilcox / PGA Tour via Getty Images)
Jordan Spieth o/u 3.5
Right now: 31 years old, three majors
Miller: Under
I can’t be so cold and cynical about the rest and then be optimistic about Spieth. Spieth’s winning another major would be an incredible sight. He remains the most popular golfer to so many fans. He’s somehow only 31, and maybe his wrist surgery really will get him back on track. Even this year at Valhalla, Pinehurst and Royal Troon he had good stretches when he was in the mix. Spieth just has not been able to put 72 holes together for a long time. It would be naive to expect him to reach the pinnacle of the sport again until we, you know, see it.
Herzig: Under
I desperately want to see another Spieth miracle. If anyone can pull something off that is so far against the odds — even if it’s just an escape shot that weaves between three different trees, a pond and a bunker — it’s Spieth. But I’m worried about his wrist, I’m worried about the time he has been dedicating to the PGA Tour board and I’m worried about the changes he has been attempting to make to his swing. Spieth’s majors era could be over, but I don’t think that means he won’t win again, period. If Spieth can get his body back on track, he’ll win more PGA Tour events. I just don’t think he can compete like Scheffler and Schauffele can at the majors, especially with the physical and mental setbacks he has been coping with for the last few seasons.
(Top photo of Scottie Scheffler: Andrew Redington / Getty Images)
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