US stocks trade mixed with Fed minutes and rate outlook in focus

• US stocks traded mixed as investors looked ahead to the central bank’s meeting minutes.

• The release will offer more insight into what the Fed is thinking about monetary policy and inflation.

• Traders are anticipating a quarter-point rate cut in November.

US stocks were mixed early Wednesday as traders looked ahead to the minutes of the Federal Reserve’s last policy meeting, which should give further guidance on the path of interest rates for the rest of the year.

All three benchmark indexes traded slightly in the red, while bond yields were up slightly.

Investors will be parsing through the Fed’s latest meeting minutes later on Wednesday, which will give more insight into what central bankers are thinking about the economy and the trajectory of rate cuts this year and beyond. Monetary policy is in focus after an unexpectedly hot job report in September, fueling doubt over whether the Fed will issue another jumbo rate cut this year.

“The minutes of the last Federal Reserve meeting are due, and should be fascinating,” Paul Donovan, the chief economist of UBS Global Wealth Management, said in a note. “The tone of the Fed minutes should not change expectations of further rate cuts—the Fed is still scrambling to catch up with inflation slowing in the US, and started cutting rates late. But expectations about the pace of easing may be set by the minutes.”

According to Pantheon Macroeconomics, the Fed is more likely to begin cutting rates in 25-basis-point increments rather than issuing another 50-basis-point rate cut.

“Even so, we still think the FOMC is putting undue emphasis on the current strength of the economy rather than the direction of travel and the lagged impact of earlier tightening still in the pipeline,” economists at the research firm said in a note. “We expect a 25bp easing in November but think a soft run of jobs and activity data in Q4 and Q1 will soon have the Fed scrambling to avoid falling behind the curve.”

Central bankers will assess another jobs report and the September Consumer Price Index, which will be published Thursday morning, before making their next rate move.

The inflation report will be a high-stakes data point for the Fed after the big September payroll report, with markets anxious that officials may have to turn their attention back to prices after pivoting to the labor market at their last meeting.

Markets are pricing in an 88% chance the Fed will issue a quarter-point cut, while odds of another jumbo-sized cut have been slashed completely, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

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Here’s where US indexes stood shortly after the 9:30 a.m. opening bell on Wednesday:

Here’s what else is going on:

In commodities, bonds, and crypto:

• West Texas Intermediate crude oil dipped 2% to $72.06 a barrel. Brent crude, the international benchmark, was fell 2% to $75.63 a barrel.

• Gold slipped 0.39% to $2,612.00 an ounce.

• The 10-year Treasury yield was about flat at 4.041%.

• Bitcoin edged lower 0.8% to trade at $61,930.

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