US rates back up, stocks back down

(Reuters) – A look at the day ahead in Asian markets.

A short-lived conviction that the Fed would stick to a dovish path evaporated after Friday’s bet-busting payrolls number, with Treasury yields on Monday backing up above 4% and traders introducing a small chance that November might not yield a rate cut at all.

The Fed rethink cooled Wall Street’s jets but prospects for the U.S. economy to skirt a recession would not need to be an impediment to Asia’s rally. It will offer mainland Chinese investors a fresh international backdrop when they return on Tuesday from the Golden Week holiday and consider last month’s market rescue with rested eyes.

Beijing dispensed the most aggressive stimulus measures since the COVID-19 pandemic in a bid to revive the flagging Chinese economy, and traders and investors are now looking for signs to see if the medicine is working.

Yields on the 10-year and two-year notes extended a rise to their highest since late July and mid August, respectively, as fed funds futures realigned to an 85% chance of a quarter point cut in November and a 15% chance that the Fed stands pat at its next meeting.

Only a week ago, some were holding out for the Fed to repeat September’s 50 bps cut at next month’s meeting. The resilient labor market made a case for the Fed to lean hawkish and that sent the S&P 500 down almost one percent.

It did not do much for the dollar, which consolidated last week’s rally, ending slightly lower against the yen and Swiss franc. Generally, along with those two safe-haven currencies, the dollar retained a bid as acute Middle East tensions threatened to spill into a wider conflict on the anniversary of the Hamas attack on Israel that sparked the war in Gaza.

The dollar fell about half a percent against the yen after rallying above 149 overnight to its highest since Aug. 15.

The yen weakness helped Japan’s Nikkei rally almost 2% on Monday, leading a broader rally across the region.

MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares climbed almost 1% and its Asia index ex-Japan rose nearly half a percent.

Here are key developments that could provide more direction to markets on Tuesday:

– Australia consumer sentiment (Oct)

– Japan Tankan manufacturing and service indexes (Oct)

– Taiwan trade balance (Sept)

– U.S. 3-year note auction

(Reporting by Alden Bentley in New York; Editing by Bill Berkrot)