Kalen DeBoer’s Alabama is mortal in a way Nick Saban’s Alabama never was

Seconds after quarterback Diego Pavia kneeled to secure Vanderbilt’s first win against Alabama since 1984, Nick Saban appeared on the jumbotron at FirstBank Stadium.

“The only place you’re going to play in the SEC that’s not hard to play is Vanderbilt,” said the legendary coach turned ESPN personality, in a clip from his appearance on “The Pat McAfee Show” on Sept. 20. The stadium played the clip on a loop, trolling Saban and the program he led to six national championships.

That line may have been true for Nick Saban’s Alabama. But this isn’t Nick Saban’s Alabama anymore, and that should be the most worrying part of Saturday’s stunning 40-35 loss for Tide fans. This wasn’t a one-off upset. It was a welcome back to mortal life.

NO WAY#Vandy played this quote from Nick Saban after the upset over Alabama:

“The only place that’s not hard to play in the SEC is Vanderbilt.” pic.twitter.com/QDfGufSQol

— Billy Derrick (@billyderrick10) October 5, 2024

DeBoer took the Alabama job to be The Guy After The Guy, inviting the comparisons to the greatest college football coach of all time, and he was always going to be raked over the coals by fans whenever his first loss came. But his first loss wasn’t supposed to be this, a setback arguably worse than any loss Saban suffered with the Tide.

After his first season, this never happened to Saban. He went 123-4 against unranked teams, winning 100 in a row at one point. The streak ended in 2021 against a Texas A&M team that began the season ranked No. 6.

This never happened against Vanderbilt, which scored 13 points total in four games against Saban’s Alabama teams and scored 40 against DeBoer’s first team.

But Vanderbilt didn’t fluke its way to a victory on Saturday. Alabama didn’t commit a ridiculous number of turnovers, and Vandy didn’t need an unlikely series of events. By the fourth quarter, Vanderbilt’s offensive line was pushing Alabama’s defensive front off the ball and opening running lanes.

That certainly never happened under Saban against an opponent like that.

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The aura of Alabama under Saban was often enough to scare opponents into the fetal position. That mental edge always felt it was worth a touchdown or so. But here was Pavia, a former junior college quarterback at New Mexico Military Institute who starred at New Mexico State last year, who didn’t fear the Tide one bit. We’ve seen teams hang around with Bama, only to crumble. Vanderbilt never did. Future teams won’t be scared, either.

For Alabama fans who are unfamiliar with DeBoer’s career beyond his ridiculously good win-loss record, a performance like Saturday actually isn’t all that new.

In 2022, DeBoer’s Washington team lost to an Arizona State team that finished 3-9 en route to an 11-2 finish. Last year’s Huskies that played for the national title barely escaped another 3-9 Arizona State team and needed a fourth down conversion to beat a Washington State team that finished 5-7. DeBoer’s last Fresno State team went 10-3 in 2021 but lost to a .500 Hawaii team. The Bulldogs also lost to bad New Mexico and Nevada teams the year before.

This just … happens with DeBoer teams, for whatever reason. He’s 41-10 as an FBS head coach, but he loses some games to bad teams. The thought was that with such a talent advantage now, he wouldn’t in Tuscaloosa.

Yes, Saban’s first Alabama team in 2007 went 7-6 and lost to Louisiana-Monroe, but he took over a program that had gone 6-7 the year before. DeBoer inherited a team coming off a College Football Playoff appearance.

As Alabama raced to a 28-0 lead on Georgia last week, we all thought DeBoer had potentially unlocked a level of Bama that even Saban didn’t reach. But then Alabama blew that lead, only escaping with a win thanks to the heroics of freshmen Ryan Williams and Zabien Brown.

Perhaps that second half should’ve been the lesson. Now, Alabama has allowed 67 points across its last six quarters. Now, a CFP bid doesn’t feel like a guarantee with the Tide’s remaining schedule.

DeBoer’s Alabama is going to win big games, as it did against Georgia. But it’s also going to lose games that Tide fans are not accustomed to losing, and it’s that uncertainty that will hang over everything now. Nothing is sure to be like it used to be.

The good news is the chaos of Saturday didn’t only hit Alabama. Tennessee lost at an unranked Arkansas team, leaving only one undefeated SEC team (Texas). The bad news is Alabama still has to travel to Tennessee, LSU and Oklahoma and play Missouri and Auburn at home. Its margin for error to make the 12-team CFP went down significantly with this loss: The Crimson Tide’s chances to make the field dipped from 94 percent to 80 percent, according to Austin Mock’s model.

It was natural to expect a drop-off after Saban left. It actually hasn’t happened on the recruiting trail yet, where DeBoer has been proving doubters wrong. None of this means Alabama will vanish from relevancy. There’s too much talent, too much culture for that to happen.

But there’s a reason Saban was the greatest of all time. He never oversaw something like Saturday. Walking into almost every game with at least an ounce of doubt is the new normal for Alabama fans. Welcome back to feeling like everyone else.

(Photo: Matthew Maxey / Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)