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The most-hyped WNBA regular season since the league’s inception delivered excitement from start to finish, but the real drama is just getting started. After a 2023 season that seemed like one long prelude to the Aces-versus-Liberty finals, the 2024 playoffs promise more chaos and intrigue from the get-go.
Here are five burning questions for the 2024 postseason, starting with how this whole format works and a breakdown of each series.
How are the playoffs structured?
The top eight teams in the league, regardless of conference, qualify for the postseason. The first-round matchups are 1 vs. 8, 2 vs. 7, 3 vs. 6, and 4 vs. 5. There is no re-seeding in between rounds, so the victor of 1 vs. 8 plays the winner of 4 vs. 5, and the 2 vs. 7 winner faces the 3 vs. 6 victor.
The playoffs last for three rounds, starting with a three-game series in the first round, in which the higher seed hosts the first two games. That format helped simplify travel before the league started flying exclusively on charters this season. The 2-1 series has been in place since 2022, and though the lower seed has forced a decisive Game 3 three times at its home arena, the higher seed has never failed to advance. The semifinal round is a five-game series (2-2-1 format), as are the WNBA Finals.
No. 1 New York (32-8) vs. No. 8 Atlanta (15-25)
Game 1 at New York: Sunday at 1 p.m. (ET), ESPN
Game 2 at New York: Tuesday at 7:30 p.m. (ET) ESPN
Game 3 (if necessary) at Atlanta: Thursday TBD, ESPN2
Did Atlanta’s season-ending win over New York mean anything?
The Liberty won their first three games against the Dream by a combined 44 points before taking their foot off the gas in the season finale — a game Atlanta had more incentive to win in order to clinch a playoff spot. However, all three of the previous matchups took place in June, when the Dream were without at least one of Jordin Canada or Rhyne Howard. Since the Olympic break, once Atlanta has been able to start its preferred lineup of Canada, Howard, Allisha Gray, Naz Hillmon and Tina Charles, the Dream have a net rating of plus-2.2 per 100 possessions, which is far better than the minus-10 mark they sported during the month of June.
GO DEEPER
Tina Charles becomes WNBA’s all-time leading rebounder
Nevertheless, even at full health, Atlanta lags behind the pace New York has set. The Liberty outscored opponents by 11.7 points per 100 possessions over the course of the season. They have the reigning MVP in Breanna Stewart, who has averaged more than 20 points against the Dream over the last two years. They also have an elite scoring defense, while Atlanta had the worst shooting percentage in the WNBA. One number to keep an eye on will be how many foul shots the Dream generate — they had the third-highest free-throw rate in the league, while New York conceded the fewest free throws to its opponents.
Unfortunately for Atlanta, their advantages in this matchup are minimal. The Liberty scored the most points in the league off turnovers, but if the Dream try to turn this into a half-court contest, the Liberty also are the league’s best offensive rebounding team. Atlanta was the fourth-best defense after the break but now goes up against the best offense. The Dream might have secured their playoff berth with a win against New York, but it should be their last of the season.
The pick: New York in 2 games
No. 2 Minnesota (30-10) vs. No. 7 Phoenix (19-21)
Game 1 at Minnesota: Sunday at 5 p.m. (ET), ESPN
Game 2 at Minnesota: Wednesday at 9:30 p.m. (ET), ESPN
Game 3 (if necessary) at Phoenix: Friday TBD, ESPN2
Can Kahleah Copper create any playoff magic?
The Mercury had one of the largest variances during the first half of the season, collecting wins against the Liberty, Lynx and Aces, yet also losing to the Dallas Wings. The second half didn’t feature the same highs, as Phoenix’s lone win over a playoff team came against Atlanta. Without a healthy Rebecca Allen, the Mercury aren’t as versatile defensively and are missing another shooter; they also miss her experience with Celeste Taylor and Mikiah Herbert Harrigan filling in those minutes.
But let’s focus on what the Mercury have, and that is Kahleah Copper, who just completed arguably the best season of her career. Copper led the league in usage (31.1 percent), just edging out A’ja Wilson, and still managed a league-average effective field goal percentage under that burden. She scored at least 30 points in nine games, including a 34-point outing with a game-winner to boot in Phoenix’s lone victory over Minnesota. Her shot chart from that game exemplifies what the Mercury need from her in this series: a high volume of 3-point attempts (12 in that game) combined with relentless rim pressure to compromise the Lynx’s defense. Minnesota congests the paint as well as anyone, but even the Lynx are powerless to stop the athleticism of Copper when she puts her head down.
“I’m one of the few two-way players in this league.”
KFC has been a show to watch all season long. Put her on your All-WNBA ballot! pic.twitter.com/P5HbCRPbMD
— Phoenix Mercury (@PhoenixMercury) September 17, 2024
Copper’s heroics might be moot if Phoenix gets destroyed on the glass, as has been the case of late, or if it lets Minnesota get going from long range. The Mercury allow the most 3-point attempts of any team, and the Lynx are the best 3-point shooting squad (38 percent). Phoenix will have to pick its poison between protecting the interior or the perimeter, while Minnesota has demonstrated the ability to do both. Regardless of how good Copper has been, Napheesa Collier is still the best player in this series. If Collier and company perform as they have since the break — Minnesota has lost once at full strength since the All-Star Game — they’ll comfortably extinguish any upset hopes.
The pick: Minnesota in 2
Game 1 at Connecticut: Sunday at 3 p.m. (ET), ABC
Game 2 at Connecticut: Wednesday at 7:30 p.m. (ET), ESPN
Game 3 at Indiana: Friday TBD, ESPN2
Will Connecticut’s experience overwhelm Indiana’s youth?
The Sun have made five straight WNBA semifinals with largely the same core. Every player in their rotation participated in last year’s postseason, while only four Fever players — all bench players — have ever suited up in the playoffs. To put it another way, Indiana’s roster has played in 19 total playoff games — four individual Connecticut players have exceeded that, including 80 playoff game appearances from DeWanna Bonner. The Fever’s stars bring a wealth of NCAA Tournament experience, but they’ve never played on this stage, and it’s fair to wonder if the stakes of this moment will affect them.
The main question from a strategic perspective is how the Sun will defend Caitlin Clark. Are they content to let others beat them, or will they show Clark more single coverage?
Clark has been an absolute flamethrower during the second half of the season, averaging 23.1 points and 8.9 assists while making 37 percent of her 3s. However, in the lone meeting of this stretch, Connecticut limited her to 19 points and five assists and forced seven turnovers. The Fever still won, and Clark’s gravity was a determining factor — Aliyah Boston had eight assists, several coming out of the short roll as two defenders converged on Clark, and Kelsey Mitchell and Lexie Hull had big scoring nights for the Fever.
“Rain drop. Drop top. I ball non stop stop.” – Caitlin Clark pic.twitter.com/kTIDFkTzee
— Indiana Fever (@IndianaFever) September 20, 2024
Throughout the season, the Sun have applied significant defensive pressure to Clark, but that has been less effective as Indiana’s offense has learned how to play out of traps and blitzes. Boston is making the right reads in the lane, and the shooting around that pick-and-roll partnership has been sublime. There is value in limiting the head of the snake, but perhaps it’s better to force the rookie to try to beat Connecticut on her own. My guess is the Sun stay aggressive with two on the ball in Game 1 but adjust after the Fever pick that apart.
The pick: Connecticut in 3
No. 4 Las Vegas (27-13) vs. No. 5 Seattle (25-15)
Game 1 at Las Vegas: Sunday at 10 p.m. (ET), ESPN
Game 2 at Las Vegas: Tuesday at 9:30 p.m. (ET), ESPN
Game 3 (if necessary) at Seattle: Thursday TBD, ESPN2
How healthy are Jewell Loyd and Ezi Magbegor?
Magbegor missed the last three games of the season in concussion protocol, and Loyd missed the same stretch with a right knee injury. If they aren’t right for the start of the playoffs, Seattle is toast. Magbegor, with her length and athleticism, is the Storm’s only hope of even containing Wilson. Seattle also needs Loyd’s offense against the league’s highest-scoring team (86.4 points per game).
The matchups between these teams are tantalizing. Two of the best scoring guards in the league in Loyd and Kelsey Plum. Another two Olympians at point guard in Chelsea Gray and Skylar Diggins-Smith, who approach the game with diametrically opposed style and pace. One of the most efficient forwards in WNBA history in Nneka Ogwumike against Wilson, who is in the midst of the best season the league has ever seen. Defensive specialist Gabby Williams gets to dig into guarding Jackie Young, and two-time Storm champion Alysha Clark faces off against her former squad.
Seattle won the first matchup before Gray was healthy, then Las Vegas took the next three. However, the Storm didn’t have their first-choice starting lineup in any of those losses, since Williams joined the team late, and she was an important factor for Seattle when these teams faced off in the 2022 postseason.
Of course, she’s also the @WNBA Western Conference Player of the Month!
26.1 PPG
12.0 RPG
1.4 SPG
1.9 BPG
51% FG@_ajawilson22 // #ALLINLV pic.twitter.com/ZyCB2Onpz8— Las Vegas Aces (@LVAces) September 20, 2024
Ultimately, it’s hard to see the Storm scoring enough to keep up with the Aces, especially in Las Vegas. If the Aces take care of the ball and sell out to protect the paint, how is a team that shot 28.8 percent on 3-pointers supposed to generate offense? A three-game series means that Seattle only needs to get hot once or twice, but Las Vegas hasn’t lost with Wilson in the lineup in nearly four weeks. The defending champs are peaking at the right time, while the Storm have looked shaky lately, even in wins.
The pick: Las Vegas in 2
(Illustration: Dan Goldfarb / The Athletic)
