Tennis storylines to watch: Nadal’s fitness, WTA Finals in Saudi, and which Tiafoe will turn up?

The Grand Slam season is over, and the WTA and ATP Finals are rapidly approaching.

These next two months can be a strange period for tennis — especially in an Olympic year — with some players keeping their powder dry for the following season while others desperately try to finish the year strongly.

Here, The Athletic looks at some of the main storylines we expect to play out between now and the end of 2024.

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How bothered is Alcaraz about ending the year as world No 1?

After winning the U.S. Open, Jannik Sinner has a big lead in the race to be the year-end world No 1. He is just under 2,900 points ahead of the No 2 Alexander Zverev and then a touch further in front of the No 3 Carlos Alcaraz.

That may seem strange given Sinner and Alcaraz have shared the year’s two Grand Slams, but the latter has been far less consistent throughout 2024.

With two Masters 1000 events to come, plus the year-end ATP Finals in November (worth a potential 1,500 points), there is still time for Alcaraz or Zverev to reel in Sinner.

But how much does Alcaraz want to make that kind of charge? In the equivalent swing last year, he struggled — he didn’t make a final and was thrashed by Novak Djokovic in the ATP Finals semis to end his year with a whimper. Alcaraz, despite being only 21, is doing a very good job of managing his mind and body to peak at the Grand Slams.

So what will his priorities be for the next few months? Will he want to correct the wrongs of his early exits in Cincinnati and the U.S. Open, of which he spoke again last week about how he let himself down? Or will he largely see the end of this year as a cooling-off period before really going for it again at the Australian Open in January?

With the chance in Melbourne to become the youngest man to complete the career Grand Slam, it would be little surprise if he opted for the latter. Last year, Alcaraz’s indifferent form at the end of the previous season bled into the Australian Open, so a charge for the finish line this year would be an interesting change-up. For all he’s won, Alcaraz is still tweaking things as he adjusts to the rhythms of tour life.

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How much will Saudi Arabia dominate the tennis landscape?

For this year’s WTA Finals in November, this issue is less about who qualifies and more about the sideshow around the event.

Last year’s equivalent in Cancun was a shambles, with stormy weather and substandard facilities driving the players to distraction. Expect no such logistical issues this time, with Riyadh taking over as hosts and sure to put on a fine show.

The issue is everything that goes around hosting a women’s sporting event in Saudi Arabia — a country with an “abysmal” record on women’s rights (according to Amnesty International this year). The country has introduced some reforms over the last few years, and points to the “personal status” law established in 2022 as evidence of progress in women’s rights. But this law stipulates that a woman has to obtain a male guardian’s permission to marry, and has to obey her husband in a “reasonable manner”. Women have only been permitted to drive in the country since 2018.

These are hugely complicated issues that can’t be fully examined here, but the eight WTA players in Riyadh will be asked about them and the appropriateness of hosting the event in Saudi Arabia. How many will put their head above the parapet and engage? Not that they are the ones who should necessarily have to — it was not their decision to host the event there.

Saudi Arabia will also host the ‘6 Kings Slam’ exhibition in October, featuring Alcaraz, Sinner, Novak Djokovic and Nadal, and the ATP Next Gen Finals in Jeddah in December. Meanwhile, discussions rumble on in the background about the nation hosting a Masters 1000 event. It promises to be a big few months in the burgeoning relationship between Saudi and tennis.

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What next for Nadal?

Speaking of Nadal, will we see him in competitive action again this year? The 22-time Grand Slam champion has already pulled out of this weekend’s Laver Cup, and does not have a tour-level event on the horizon. He was last seen in singles action taking a battering from his old rival Djokovic at the Olympics in late July, and of his Laver Cup withdrawal he didn’t mention any specifics, saying vaguely that: “I need to do what’s best for them and there are other players who can help the team deliver the win.”

With accumulated injuries and fitness concerns forcing Nadal out of the U.S. Open (he said with similar vagueness that he would not “be able to give my 100 per cent”), you wonder what he is building up to. We don’t know if this will be his last year on tour, but the Davis Cup finals in his home country in November feel like an appropriate, and possibly realistic, target to work towards.

Elsewhere, the rest of the year will also see tennis say farewell to some other very popular players — including Dominic Thiem, 31 (at the Vienna Open), and Danielle Collins, 30 (at the Billie Jean King Cup Finals).

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More of the same from Swiatek?

World No 1 Iga Swiatek has already pulled out of the Billie Jean King Cup finals in November (as well as this week’s Korea Open) to give herself a proper off season, but generally the expectation is that she’ll go full throttle between now and the end of the year.

Swiatek doesn’t really know another way. In Cincinnati last month, she spoke out about the jam-packed schedule, particularly the increased number of mandatory events, and said it risked burning the players out. “It’s not going to end well,” she said. “It makes tennis less fun for us. I love playing in all these places, but it’s pretty exhausting and most of the WTA players would tell you that, especially when you’re playing at a high level.”

A few weeks later, after her tired-looking defeat to Jessica Pegula in the U.S. Open quarterfinals, you would not have blamed Swiatek for taking some time off. “I don’t think it would make sense,” responded an almost affronted sounding Swiatek. “If you’re out of tour, then it’s pretty hard to come back… I’m ready for playing till November, I guess, unless I’m going to get injured.”

Swiatek’s approach has generally been to just keep going, and her overall consistency is why she is more than 2,000 points clear at the top of the rankings, despite winning one Grand Slam to Aryna Sabalenka’s two in 2024. It’s the approach that saw Swiatek pip the Belarusian to the top spot at the end of last year after a surge at the WTA Finals.

This time around, will Swiatek’s mind start to wander to next year?

It will also be interesting to see whether Swiatek starts to play with a bit more freedom and variety with less on the line these next few months. She’s retreated more and more into sticking with Plan A even if it’s not working, and it’s not been working as well since Roland Garros (no finals in her four events since).

Incidentally, much of the above could also be said of Coco Gauff, who has veered badly off course since the French Open.

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Will Sabalenka cement herself as de facto No 1?

There was some suggestion after winning her second major of the year at the U.S. Open that it was Sabalenka rather than Swiatek who was now the woman to beat on the WTA Tour — despite what the rankings suggest.

That probably overstates it given Swiatek’s staggering overall consistency on the tour and huge ranking points lead — but if Sabalenka can have the upper hand in these closing couple of months to add to her superior Grand Slam performance this year, then she really will go into 2025 with the aura of the player the others’ most fear.

If that’s not the case already.

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Will Tiafoe ‘turn the page’ or ‘half-ass it’?

Over the last couple of years, Frances Tiafoe has essentially built his year around two tournaments: the U.S. Open and Wimbledon. There are some other important ones, sure, but none that compare to those two.

This year has been another example of this, with Tiafoe playing by far his best matches in New York and south-west London. At the latter, this still ended up in a defeat — in five sets to Alcaraz — but it reignited the flame in Tiafoe and set him up for that semifinal run at the U.S. Open this month.

After his tournament eventually ended with a defeat to compatriot Taylor Fritz in the semis, Tiafoe vowed that he would tweak his approach. That he would put in the work all year round to give himself the best possible chance of peaking at his two favourite events. “I’m gonna turn the page, I’m going to try to end the year strong,” he said in New York. “I’m going to go to Asia, do the whole thing, do it the right way and not half-ass it.”

Now the adrenaline has worn off, will Tiafoe make good on that pledge? It’s exciting to think of Tiafoe being a greater factor on the tour. Not just because it would mean we’d get to see one of the most magnetic players on the ATP Tour, but also because it would set him up much better for those clutch matches, and potentially make encounters at the slams with players like Alcaraz even more epic.

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How many Americans will reach Turin?

The race to Turin, where the best eight players from the year will compete in the ATP Finals, offers a good indication of the state of American men’s tennis. Taylor Fritz is fifth in the race and behind him, there’s a clutch of four players between No 11 and No 20 (ie, very good but not yet elite).

Fritz looks a good bet to make the finals in Italy after his U.S. Open final run, but will any of Tommy Paul (No 11), Tiafoe (14), Sebastian Korda (17) and Ben Shelton (20) will be joining him?

Doing so would do plenty for any of those players’ confidence, while also leaving them most likely as a top-eight seed for the Australian Open, and ensuring themselves a slightly easier draw.

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Which of the team events will stand out?

This section of the year is when team events are most prominent. The Davis Cup and Billie Jean King Cup are in a constant battle to stay relevant, so it’ll be interesting to see how many top players turn out for the finals in Malaga at the end of an arduous season. Swiatek and Gauff have already pulled out of the BJK Cup finals. Alcaraz played for Spain in the Davis Cup last week so, barring an injury, the expectation is he will do so again in November. Maybe Nadal will join him.

As for the Laver Cup, this will be the second year in a row with none of the ‘Big Three’ in action. Alcaraz being in Berlin will help but for an event that has always been so driven by star power, it will be interesting to see how it evolves over the next few years.

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Will any players have late breakthroughs?

With players regularly running out of steam at this time of year, there is an opportunity for some of the fresher figures to make hay in the final two months of the season. That could be someone more established, such as Pegula, who looks recharged after taking time off earlier in the year, pushing for a top-three rankings finish (possibly even top two), or someone younger, such as Diana Shnaider (20 years old), who has plenty of momentum behind her and not many miles on the clock, going after a statement victory.

On the men’s side, Britain’s Jack Draper has a game that looks well suited to indoor tennis and has the chance to build on his excellent showing in New York and push towards the world’s top 10.

In the immediate term, the main focus on the women’s side this week is on the Korea Open 500 event in Seoul. For the men, the Laver Cup, starting on Friday, promises to dominate.

Even with no more Grand Slams this year, there are plenty of talking points between now and the end of the season.

(CARL DE SOUZA/AFP via Getty Images)