NFL QB stock report, Week 3: Kyler Murray surges into top 10; Sam Darnold too low?

Two games into the 2024 NFL season, there’s been some necessary reshuffling with the QB rankings.

The initial rankings were essentially a composite look at the way key evaluators viewed the 32 starting quarterbacks. Now, there’s more to balance.

There are several key considerations when sorting out the rankings, and they’re not all weighted equally. First, how does the QB’s career resume stack up? How high is his ceiling vs. how low is his floor? Someone like Patrick Mahomes, of course, can afford a bad performance or a substandard stretch and maintain his perch atop the rankings.

Second, how has he played through two weeks relative to that career resume? Arizona Cardinals QB Kyler Murray (more on him later) is off to an outstanding start, but there’s enough reason to believe this isn’t a fluke because he’s played at a near-MVP level before.

Third, how are the circumstances around him, whether it’s the QB’s health or the health and talent around him with the offensive line and skill players? Los Angeles Rams QB Matthew Stafford has taken the biggest fall from the top 10, partly because he hasn’t played great but mostly because his team has been decimated by injuries.

Fourth, in some cases when it’s a really close call, which QB would the majority of teams take if they had the choice?

Again, these factors can be weighted differently with certain players. Rookies and veterans with lower floors have more to prove. Baltimore Ravens QB Lamar Jackson and Cincinnati Bengals QB Joe Burrow, who are both surprisingly 0-2, have gotten the benefit of the doubt that they’ll be fine sooner than later.

Now, to the most impressive riser of the young season:

Hail Murray

Murray jumped 10 spots this week, by far the biggest move from any QB early in the season. He produced a perfect passer rating Sunday against the Rams, a team many around the league believed would be in the playoffs this season, and Murray had the Cardinals close to pulling off a major upset in Buffalo in the opener.

In today’s @AZCardinals victory, Kyler Murray (@K1) became the 2nd player in @NFL history with 250+ passing yards, 50+ rushing yards and a 158.3 passer rating – the highest attainable mark – in a single game.

He joins Ken Anderson, who accomplished the feat on Nov. 3, 1974. pic.twitter.com/R4riWfygVd

— NFL345 (@NFL345) September 15, 2024

The No. 1 pick in the 2019 draft has been outstanding through two games, completing 73.1 percent of his passes for 428 yards, four touchdowns, no interceptions and a 122.9 rating. He’s also rushed for 116 yards.

Murray was decent last season when he returned from a torn ACL. Now fully healthy with an entire offseason in Drew Petzing’s highly regarded offense, Murray might be on the verge of the best season of his career. And remember, he was in the MVP conversation at times in 2020 and 2021.

Murray does have a history of starting strong and fading down the stretch, but there’s reason to believe this is more sustainable. Former head coach Kliff Kingsbury’s offense had been criticized by rival executives for stalling due to a lack of evolution as the season progressed. Murray’s play suffered as a result. A growing number of injuries also impacted him late in seasons, so that’s certainly still going to be a concern.

Before the season, numerous coaches and executives raved about Petzing’s scheme in 2023. It’s one of the key reasons the Cardinals were selected in the preseason as the team most likely to overachieve in a poll by The Athletic. Many predicted Petzing would get head coaching interviews this offseason.

The Cardinals are better this season. The level of Murray’s play will determine just how much of a threat they could be in potentially contending for a playoff spot.

Darnold too low?

Sam Darnold could lay claim to the biggest gripe in the rankings.

The 27-year-old has completed 72 percent of his passes for 476 yards, four touchdowns, two interceptions and a 111.8 passer rating in a pair of wins. He also just disposed of the 49ers, which is something his former team failed to do with Aaron Rodgers in Week 1.

JUSTIN JEFFERSON 97 YARD TUDDY!!!!!!!!! pic.twitter.com/0PJs9mheCK

— NFL (@NFL) September 15, 2024

Vikings coach Kevin O’Connell runs a QB-friendly offense, and wide receiver Justin Jefferson makes everyone around him better at their jobs — 20.4 percent of Darnold’s passing yards this season occurred on one throw to Jefferson on Sunday, after all. Darnold appears to be set up for success more than any other point in his career, and it wouldn’t be too difficult to argue Darnold is off to a better start than some of the quarterbacks who are ranked ahead of him.

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So why the low ranking? It’s still too small of a sample for a QB who has shown flashes like this at various points in his career, notably during a solid 3-0 start with the Panthers in 2021 before it all came crashing down.

If Darnold sustains this pace, he’ll move up the rankings.

Budget ballers

How about the NFC South?

Baker Mayfield and Derek Carr are off to outstanding starts for their undefeated teams, potentially setting the scene for an epic Week 6 collision in New Orleans that could shape the division race the rest of the way.

The Saints aggressively pursued Carr in 2023 after Plans A-Z in the post-Drew Brees era fell flat, while the Bucs added Mayfield during the same offseason without any guarantees he’d be a starter. Mayfield delivered a strong first season in Tampa to earn a long-coveted contract, yet Carr struggled much of the year before lighting it up the past couple of weeks.

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And they’re both doing it on deals worth less than $40 million annually. Carr is tied for the 17th-biggest QB deal at $37.5 million per year, while Mayfield ranks 19th at $33.3 million.

The Saints have unique cap management philosophies, but Carr’s deal has undoubtedly aided their defensive investments. Mayfield’s deal allowed the Bucs to keep a number of homegrown stars, none more valuable than wideout Mike Evans.

It’s the type of approach that plenty of teams would love to execute with quarterback contracts exploding around the league — nine are now on the books for more than $50 million per year. Pair a savvy quarterback with the right offensive coordinator/play caller, build up the rest of the roster and hope that depth is enough to overcome the more vaunted QB dragons in the playoffs.

Mayfield looks even more comfortable with Liam Coen at offensive coordinator. Carr, meanwhile, looks like a completely different player with OC Klint Kubiak, leading an astounding 15 consecutive scoring drives to open the season.

Trouble in Jacksonville?

This was supposed to be the season Trevor Lawrence established himself as a top-10 quarterback. Maybe that still happens, but it’s going to require a 180-degree turnaround.

If you recall, we pointed out a distinct line in the rankings at the start of the season. Of the quarterbacks ranked Nos. 19-32 in the initial rankings, all but Anthony Richardson changed teams, head coaches or offensive coordinators/play-callers. There was so much uncharted territory in the bottom 14.

Lawrence now ranks No. 18. The Jaguars look disjointed on offense, continuing to make mistakes and failing to find consistency with the protection and run game. Lawrence has looked hesitant, perhaps unable to find confidence amid the team’s overall issues. Then again, franchise quarterbacks are expected to instill confidence among the chaos.

A SWARMING SAFETY FOR ALEX WRIGHT 🙏#CLEvsJAX on CBS & NFL+ pic.twitter.com/XvJhBYz6eW

— Cleveland Browns (@Browns) September 15, 2024

The Jaguars have lost two games by a total of eight points. The defense gave up 20 to the Dolphins and 18 to the Browns. There isn’t a soul in Jacksonville who wouldn’t expect their $55 million quarterback to deliver a pair of wins to complement that type of defensive effort.

Then again, they’d be 1-1 if Travis Etienne doesn’t fumble at the goal line in Miami. Or if Lawrence was able to deliver in the fourth quarter against the Browns the way he did so many times in 2022, the narrative is completely different.

That’s too many “ifs.” Instead, the Jaguars are winless and preparing for road trips to Buffalo and Houston. They’re on the brink of a worst-case scenario if they can’t pull off at least one upset before the schedule settles a bit.

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Bryce to the bench

A half day after another impressive C.J. Stroud performance on the national stage, the Panthers decided to bench Bryce Young. The dichotomy is striking between the top two picks of the 2023 NFL Draft.

The circumstances in Carolina weren’t conducive to success for any quarterback. It’s not like selecting Stroud at No. 1 would have solved the Panthers’ issues on the offensive line or receiver, or anywhere on defense.

It does, however, reinforce the opinion the Panthers shouldn’t have traded so much capital to move up for Young, who was an imperfect prospect. Young was mostly viewed as the best QB prospect, though some teams did indeed prefer Stroud and even Anthony Richardson. But that doesn’t mean Young was a sure thing. If you’re going to trade two first-round picks — one of which became the No. 1 overall pick (Caleb Williams) in 2024 — two second-round picks and a No. 1 receiver, you better know you’re getting a franchise quarterback.

The Panthers still can’t be sure that’s what they have in Young, but the overall roster construction is more to blame than anything. Young is hardly the only reason the Panthers have been outscored, 108-13, over their last four games.

Now, the Panthers have an even more complicated situation on their hands. Young has looked completely out of sorts through two games, and he’s playing with minimal confidence, which should be expected with so much chaos around him. That confidence isn’t going to magically reappear after such a public benching.

Bryce Young Benched. Why?…Film Dont Lie.

He’s struggling with seeing the field & his footwork is NOT where it should be. There are plays wide open.

All 22 QB Breakdown: Bryce Young pic.twitter.com/g8aXfqMou6

— Chase Daniel (@ChaseDaniel) September 16, 2024

With 15 games to go, it’s impossible to guess where the Panthers go from here. And with owner David Tepper’s unpredictable nature, who knows who’ll even be making the QB decisions after the season? General manager Dan Morgan, who was the assistant GM and had a prominent voice in the collaborative approach to the Young draft selection, is going to have to answer to Tepper. Morgan is the most powerful figure still standing after Tepper cleaned house following the 2023 season.

Coach Dave Canales, who was hired to revive Young, saw enough of the QB after two games. Canales’ predecessor, Frank Reich, was fired last season after 11 games. These aren’t encouraging timelines from a big-picture standpoint.

One league executive called the Panthers’ situation a “disaster.” Another said the Panthers committed the cardinal sin of trading up in the draft for an “outlier” of a prospect, hoping everything would come together rather than finding ways to accentuate Young’s better qualities.

At this point, though, what’s done is done. The pick was made. The assets are gone. And Young is on the bench. If they can’t find a way out of this hole, the Panthers are earlier in the rebuild than anyone would have imagined even two weeks ago.

It’s Tua’s decision

The public’s calls for Tua Tagovailoa to retire are rooted in good intentions. The Dolphins quarterback has now suffered three unsettling concussions on a national stage, and we’re all much better educated on the brain injury’s long-term effects than ever before.

But let’s just give Tagovailoa the grace to make a decision that he feels is in his own best interest. He’s got his medical team. The Dolphins have given him the proper resources. He’s in good care, relative to the circumstances.

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It’s almost too easy to watch from afar and form the opinion that the 26-year-old should prioritize his long-term health. And there’s absolutely nothing wrong with that opinion.

It’s more difficult, though, to put yourself in Tagovailoa’s position and consider everything else that’s gotten him to this point. He worked to get himself on the map in Hawaii, earning a scholarship from Nick Saban at Alabama. He bided his time behind Jalen Hurts, delivered a comeback victory in the national championship, worked to become a first-round pick, overcame a host of injuries and tuned out a ton of criticism and distractions to land a four-year, $212.4 million contract. He’s already overcome more adversity than most starting quarterbacks, and it’s got to be gut-wrenching to consider leaving it all behind.

The point is this has to be an emotionally draining decision for Tagovailoa. If he continues playing, we should at least try to see it from his perspective.

(Photo of Kyler Murray: Christian Petersen / Getty Images)