Why each of the Top 10 Super Bowl contenders will (or won’t) hoist the Lombardi in February

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The Kansas City Chiefs have won back-to-back Super Bowls, so the entire NFL will be looking to knock them off their perch atop the league. What’s surprising, though, is that despite winning two titles in a row, my NFL Projection Model does not see the Chiefs as the favorites to win it all this year. That’s more a testament to the AFC, which is deep with talented teams, making the Chiefs’ march to another conference crown extremely difficult.

Then again, the road won’t be easy for any team. If it were, we wouldn’t be watching.

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With that in mind, and the start of the season less than a week away, let’s examine the 10 teams most likely to win the Super Bowl and provide reasons why they will or won’t be the last team standing in February.

Why they’ll win the Super Bowl

The 49ers still have arguably the best roster in the NFL, with my projection model suggesting they have the best offense and fourth-best defense in the league. Quarterback Brock Purdy is 17-4 as a starter in his young career, and coach Kyle Shanahan is one of the best offensive minds in football. When you have top-five units on both sides of the ball and you’re coming off a second NFC title in three years, it’s not hard to argue for why you’ll win it.

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Why they won’t win the Super Bowl

Contract chaos. Negotiations with star receiver Brandon Aiyuk and All-Pro left tackle Trent Williams spill into the season, and without these two practicing for the majority of the summer, the offense sputters out of the gate and struggles to find a rhythm.

And if the 49ers ultimately deal Aiyuk, that will be a huge blow to the offense despite their investment in the position in the draft. The 49ers employ a rookie contract quarterback, so they have plenty of talent beyond Aiyuk and Williams, but without those two pushing the unit to full strength, it’s hard to envision San Francisco reaching another Super Bowl.

Update: Aiyuk re-signed with the 49ers. It might take him some time to get back up to full speed, but if the 49ers can now take care of Williams, there are far fewer reasons to be concerned about their chances of returning to the Super Bowl.

Kansas City Chiefs (11.8%)

Why they’ll win the Super Bowl

You know the reasons. It’s hard not to sound like a broken record when talking about this era of the Chiefs, but here goes: They have a generational quarterback in Patrick Mahomes, an all-time great coach in Andy Reid, one of the best assistant coaches in recent memory in defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo and a championship-caliber roster. If Mahomes is healthy and under center, it’s hard to see them as an underdog against anyone.

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Why they won’t win the Super Bowl

No team in the Super Bowl era has ever three-peated. It’s incredibly difficult to win the Super Bowl, and despite Mahomes and Co. making it look so easy, the AFC really is stacked this year. One thing I’m worried about is that the Chiefs kind of sleepwalked through the regular season last year. If they have to go on the road in the playoffs again, maybe the defense takes a step back (replacing star CB L’Jarius Sneed won’t be easy) and they trip up in a tough environment like Baltimore or Buffalo.

Why they’ll win the Super Bowl

The defense becomes respectable, especially in the secondary. Last year, the Lions ranked 24th in EPA/play and 29th against the pass, according to TruMedia. They should have no problem on offense — they’re ranked third by my model — but if they’re going to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl, the defense needs to take strides. And since their first two picks in the NFL Draft were both spent on cornerbacks (first-rounder Terrion Arnold and second-rounder Ennis Rakestraw Jr.), I’d say general manager Brad Holmes and coach Dan Campbell agree.

Why they won’t win the Super Bowl

The offense becomes stale under Jared Goff, just like it did in Los Angeles. In Year 3 with the Rams, Goff reached the Super Bowl with his EPA/dropback and success rate metrics hitting a peak. In Year 4, his numbers dropped off, and the Rams went from 13 wins to nine. If Goff follows a similar trajectory in his fourth year in Detroit, with an improving division, the Lions could fall short of expectations.

Why they’ll win the Super Bowl

Coordinator upgrades on both sides of the ball allow the Eagles to reach their full potential. The Eagles were a mess last year, and getting the coordinator hires right could offset losing Jason Kelce and Fletcher Cox to retirement. Vic Fangio should be a huge upgrade to a defense that lost its way last year. And the addition of an explosive playmaker in Saquon Barkley should allow new offensive coordinator Kellen Moore to take some of the burden off Jalen Hurts as a runner, which will help keep the quarterback healthy for the entire season en route to the Super Bowl.

Why they won’t win the Super Bowl

The defense just doesn’t quite put it together. The Eagles’ first three picks in April’s draft were all spent on the defensive side of the ball, and the first two — defensive backs Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean — will be expected to contribute in the secondary. That’s a lot of pressure to put on a pair of inexperienced players. My model has the Eagles defense projected to be a league-average unit as it stands right now, and if the young players in the secondary don’t show up, Philadelphia won’t last long in January.

Baltimore Ravens (6.3%)

Why they’ll win the Super Bowl

The defense remains one of the best in the NFL despite losing defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald to the Seattle Seahawks. If Zach Orr can step in and keep things at the standard they were at under Macdonald, this is one of the best teams in football. Orr has been with the Ravens as a player and coach for all but one year of his career, so he will have all the knowledge needed to keep the ship on course. Also worth mentioning: Two-time MVP QB Lamar Jackson and running back Derrick Henry could be the most dangerous backfield duo since the turn of the century, and that ends up being a huge reason for their success.

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Why they won’t win the Super Bowl

Losses on the offensive line are too much to overcome, and the Ravens find themselves struggling to fend off contenders in a deep AFC. Jackson can erase a lot of deficiencies, but replacing three offensive linemen and relying on Ronnie Stanley’s health becomes a roster-building mistake even Jackson can’t overcome. The Ravens had one of the better offensive lines in the league last year, but no offense can reach its goals if it’s struggling in the trenches. If this line fails to come together, so will the Ravens.

Why they’ll win the Super Bowl

Because the defense improves without Dan Quinn. Though things got stale with Mike Zimmer as a head coach in Minnesota, I still think he is one of the better defensive minds in football. Despite rostering one of the best pass rushers in the league in Micah Parsons, the Cowboys defense always seemed to come up short against great offenses during Quinn’s tenure —  especially against those running the Shanahan/Sean McVay schemes. If Zimmer gets a little more out of this talented unit, the Cowboys offense has enough firepower to take them to their first Super Bowl since 1994.

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Why they won’t win the Super Bowl

Because Dak Prescott can’t overcome negative plays in big games. Listen, Prescott is a good quarterback and I think he’s one of few capable of leading an NFL team to a ring. But he tends to throw interceptions and take sacks at a higher rate than the league’s elite when it matters. Last year (playoffs included), Prescott ranked 13th in sacks plus INT rate at 7.4 percent. Against 2023 playoff teams (eight games), he ranked 26th at 10.3 percent. If Prescott and the Cowboys offense can’t avoid the disaster plays in the big games, they will endure yet another disappointing end to their season.

Buffalo Bills (5.6%)

Why they’ll win the Super Bowl

Because Josh Allen is the second-best quarterback in the NFL and lifts a Bills offense that no longer has star wide receiver Stefon Diggs. The Chiefs traded away Tyreek Hill and won back-to-back Super Bowls, and while I don’t think Allen is Mahomes, he’s the next closest thing. The Bills look to be following the Chiefs’ blueprint of keeping the roster healthy for the long term rather than spending too much on one position (Diggs/Hill). If Allen can rise to the occasion like Mahomes has, there is no reason the Bills can’t finish on top in February.

Why they won’t win the Super Bowl

The defense isn’t deep enough to carry its weight. Linebacker Matt Milano, a vital member of the Bills defense, is going to miss extended time recovering from a torn biceps injury he suffered earlier this month. With Milano in the lineup, my projections have the Bills as a fringe top-10 defense. Without him, they look more like an average unit, as the model is not overly fond of the remaining back seven. Without depth in that area, I’m afraid that hill will be too steep to climb for Buffalo.

Why they’ll win the Super Bowl

Quarterback Joe Burrow plays a full season. Burrow has been one of the league’s best quarterbacks when healthy, but he’s struggled to stay on the field. The offense has the weapons in place to be one of the best units in the league, and if Burrow is out there, it’s a good bet that unit will be near the top five. Factor in the fourth-place schedule the Bengals will play this season, and there is an easier-than-expected path through the stacked AFC. In fact, Burrow has a chance to lead the Bengals to a first-round bye.

Why they won’t win the Super Bowl

The defense isn’t championship-caliber. The Bengals ranked 25th in EPA/play on defense last year, so it’s going to take an awful lot to get back into the top 10. My model has them projected to be an average unit entering the season, and that’s likely not good enough considering where the offense is. Burrow is a great quarterback, but I don’t think he’s shown the ability to carry an average defense to a Super Bowl.

Why they’ll win the Super Bowl

Because coach Matt LaFleur, quarterback Jordan Love and this offense dismantled the Cowboys in the playoffs last year and took the 49ers to the wire in the divisional round. And that was no fluke. Another offseason for Love and the ceiling for the Packers on that side of the ball is as high as anyone’s in the league. If they come close to reaching that ceiling, they have a great shot to go all the way.

Why they won’t win the Super Bowl

Because while the offense was a top-five unit by EPA/play in the second half of last season, the defense ranked in the bottom 10, and the special teams was the worst unit in football during the same period. Changes have been made at defensive coordinator — Jeff Hafley replaced Joe Barry — and the talent is there, but can it all come together for Green Bay? It’s a tough thing to bet on. Even if the defense is average, combined with horrible special teams play, that’s just too much burden for the offense to carry.

Why they’ll win the Super Bowl

The easy answer here is that Aaron Rodgers plays like an MVP, but I think the more glaring issue is the offensive line, which allowed pressure at the sixth-highest rate last year. The Jets addressed this by upgrading the unit in free agency (Tyron Smith, Morgan Moses, John Simpson) and the draft (Olu Fashanu). Even though Fashanu hasn’t played an NFL snap yet, he’ll serve as crucial depth behind the oft-injured Smith.

If the Jets keep Rodgers upright, all he needs to do is be an above-average quarterback, and the Jets can make a run with their elite defense.

Why they won’t win the Super Bowl

Because having an elite defense year over year is tough. The New England Patriots are the only team to rank in the top five  of EPA/play on defense in each of the past three seasons. And you could argue the quarterback play in the AFC East during the stretch has inflated the Patriots’ ranking. The Jets defense enters the season in the top three, per my model. If the unit were to slide down, even to seventh best, that could too big of a hill to climb for an offense that has uncertainties.

(Photo illustration: Dan Goldfarb / The Athletic;
photos: Lauren Leigh Bacho, Ryan Kang and Ric Tapia: Getty Images)