A Lions-Chiefs Super Bowl? Mahomes reclaiming MVP? The Athletic staff’s NFL predictions for 2024

The 2024 season is here. The Baltimore Ravens and Kansas City Chiefs get things started tonight, followed by a Friday night matchup between the Green Bay Packers and Philadelphia Eagles.

With no time to waste, let’s look at The Athletic’s NFL staff picks for MVP, Super Bowl champion and more.

Forty-two staff members responded (some opting not to answer everything, so there aren’t always 42 responses). Here’s what they think.

Patrick Mahomes has already won the award twice — in 2018 and 2022 — so why not a third time while the Kansas City Chiefs try to three-peat? Our staff overwhelmingly picked the soon-to-be 29-year-old quarterback to do just that.

While quarterbacks dominated our MVP voting, they took a back seat in this category. Tyreek Hill finished fourth in the AP Offensive Player of the Year voting two seasons ago and was runner-up last season when he led the league with 1,799 receiving yards, 13 TDs and a career-best 112.4 receiving yards per game. Our staff thinks he’ll continue his dominance catching passes from Tua Tagovailoa in Mike McDaniel’s offense in Miami.

In his three NFL seasons, Micah Parsons has finished second, second and third in Defensive Player of the Year voting. His sack totals have inched up every year — 13 to 13 1/2 to 14 — and signs point to the former Penn State star linebacker breaking through in 2024. Myles Garrett won it last season after a 14-sack campaign that followed five consecutive double-digit sack seasons. Entering the season, it looks like a Parsons-Garrett battle and we’ll get to see them on the same field Sunday when the Cowboys visit the Browns.

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Six quarterbacks were selected within the first 12 picks of the 2024 NFL Draft and three are among the five rookies receiving votes from our staff in this category. No. 1 pick Caleb Williams received 31 of 42 total votes. Expectations are high for the Bears’ quarterback, to say the least.

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As long as Mahomes is in Kansas City, this feels like the safest choice. The Chiefs won the past two Super Bowls, three of the past five and have played in four of the last five. Mahomes was named MVP in each of the Chiefs’ Super Bowl victories. The Bengals and Texans both received four votes. Cincinnati lost the 2021 Super Bowl to the Los Angeles Rams and the Texans have not reached a conference title game since joining the league in 2002.

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The Lions made the playoffs last season for the first time since 2016 and reached the NFC Championship Game — they lost 34-31 to the 49ers — for the first time since 1991. Can Dan Campbell get Detroit to its first Super Bowl in franchise history? The Packers and 49ers won’t make it easy, according to our staff.

Surprise … it’s the Chiefs. OK, that’s not really a surprise. But that’s what happens when you win back-to-back Super Bowls and have Mahomes, Travis Kelce and Chris Jones on your side. The 49ers finished with the second-most votes, fitting after they lost to the Chiefs in overtime in last season’s Super Bowl.

Kansas City occupied the three top vote-getting matchups and received votes against six different opponents. But our staff likes the Chiefs-Lions showdown most, followed by Chiefs-Packers and a Chiefs-49ers rematch. The top non-Chiefs Super Bowls? Texans vs. Eagles and Bengals vs. Lions.

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What they said

“Mike McCarthy. McCarthy has proven he can win in the regular season with three straight 12-5 seasons. But that regular-season success hasn’t translated to the playoffs. If that doesn’t change, the coach of the Cowboys will.” — Dan Duggan, Giants writer

“Nick Sirianni. When you fire and replace both of your coordinators, the pressure is now on you. It’s win or be fired yourself.” — Adam Jahns, Bears writer

“Robert Saleh. He’s entering his fourth year in New York with an 18-33 record. Saleh’s personality and perch in the league’s most high-profile city give him more cache than his results have earned. With Aaron Rodgers back from injury, Saleh and the Jets are out of excuses. If this team doesn’t make a run, there will be major changes in New York.” — Josh Kendall, Falcons writer

“Sean McDermott. He only gets so many shots with Josh Allen to prove he can get the Bills back to the Super Bowl.” — Paul Dehner Jr., Bengals writer

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“Mike McCarthy: He’s got 36 regular-season wins to one playoff win over the last three seasons and is on an expiring contract with Bill Belichick as a coaching free agent. That’s a lot of pressure.” — Jeff Howe, NFL writer

“Robert Saleh. If he can’t win this season with that defense and a healthy Aaron Rodgers, he may not be long for his job.” — Adam Hirshfield, NFL editor

“Nick Sirianni. Was last season’s second-half collapse a fluke or a sign of a bigger problem? The Eagles are talented, but a slow start will turn up the volume and heat on the man in charge.” — Doug Haller, Cardinals writer

“Dave Canales. He’s the least proven head coach in the league in terms of overall track record, which means he has the most to prove. There are other coaches facing greater pressure this season, but they are much more seasoned/proven.” — Mike Sando, NFL writer

“Dennis Allen. The Saints are on the short list of middling teams that could bottom out this year as some of their top talent is getting older and a bit worse. They have issues at quarterback and may struggle on both the offensive and defensive lines. Things seem a bit stale in New Orleans, and Allen needs to prove that isn’t the case.” — Joe Buscaglia, Bills writer

What they said

“Arizona. Last year you saw the culture set, now the talent level has risen for a full season with Kyler Murray.” — Dehner

“The Falcons are in a really good place. The mood around the building with Raheem Morris is through the roof, and Kirk Cousins and OC Zac Robinson should really help the skill players shine. They’re also in a very winnable division.” — Howe

“Tennessee Titans, because after an aggressive offseason following another double-digit loss season, they will force their way into contention in the AFC South and have a shot at the playoffs.” — Mike Jones, NFL writer

“Denver Broncos. I’m a believer that the Sean Payton-Bo Nix pairing will work well. I don’t love the skill-position pieces around Nix, but it’s the first time since Payton coached Drew Brees that I can see him having full confidence in a quarterback. I could envision a second-place finish in the AFC West and a possible wild-card berth.” — Larry Holder, NFL writer

“The Chargers — they have the talent to turn things around and they have a head coach who knows how to win.” — Dan Pompei, NFL writer

“Cardinals. I’m reaching deep for this one because anyone can say the Bears. But the Cardinals could be a sneaky team for the biggest turnaround even if they’ll still be far from a serious contender. They were more competitive than the typical 4-13 team in Jonathan Gannon’s first season as head coach. They also were 1-8 without Kyler Murray and 3-5 after he returned to the lineup. A healthy Murray combined with Marvin Harrison Jr. could turn things around fast for the Cardinals.” — Duggan

“Seattle Seahawks. Geno Smith should have a nice rebound of a season and the Seahawks defense should be much improved with more youth under new head coach Mike Macdonald. The Seahawks also have a very favorable schedule, which should allow them to make a run to make the playoffs.” — Nate Taylor, Chiefs writer

“Falcons. Atlanta gets a new coach with a strong defensive pedigree and leadership skills in Raheem Morris, and a proven quarterback in Kirk Cousins to pair with ascending playmakers Bijan Robinson and Drake London. It also helps that the Falcons play in the NFC South.” — Joe Person, Panthers writer

“Washington. The Commanders only won four games last year. I think they could double that win total and maybe compete for the NFC East title if things go poorly for the Eagles and Cowboys. Dan Quinn ends up improving the defense and Jayden Daniels shows they have a franchise QB.” — Jon Machota, Cowboys writer

(Illustration: Dan Goldfarb / The Athletic; photos: Todd Rosenberg, Cooper Neill, Kara Durrette / Getty Images)