Let’s face it, us All Blacks fans are notorious for our stratospheric expectations. We’re used to winning – certainly at home to a country like England. The mother country hasn’t won a Test here since 2003 and before that it was 1973.
So it’s easy to take victory in the upcoming series for granted. After all, England fell pretty low after 2020, unable to win any more than one game against anyone other than Italy in three consecutive Six Nations. Then they lost insipidly last year to Fiji. They can’t even beat Scotland, who New Zealand have never lost to. Ever.
Since then though England have become formidable opponents and unlike previous tours they’re pulling out all the stops to give themselves the best possible chance to claim a rare away All Black scalp. It’s hard for us kiwis to conceive how much that achievement would mean to them and their fans, such is their grudging respect for that dark jersey.
They’re going to be a real challenge for an All Black setup in transition with an almost brand new coaching and management group and so many first choice 2023 players retired or injured. And that’s just the start of a difficult rookie season for coach Scott Robertson. Just how high should our expectations be this year?
(Photo by Joe Allison/Getty Images)
THE SCHEDULE
Stuart Lancaster was dealt a very rough hand in 2014, with the Twickenham Premiership decider just seven days before the first Test. That disrupted preparations, with participants in the final missing out on the opener.
This year Steve Borthwick is laughing. The English domestic season finished in early June, two weeks ahead of Super Rugby and the URC and three weeks ahead of France. He even had most of his team together before the final, and a warmup match against Japan two weeks later. Compare that to Razor’s week and a half with his new team.
England dealt easily with the master of the one-off ambush Eddie Jones in Japan. He tried to schedule a high noon kickoff in the Tokyo summer… England wanted 8pm and the compromise time of 3 o’clock was still a win for the old fox. He tried to run his former team off their feet but England ran them around instead. Mission accomplished by his erstwhile assistant.
THE SELECTION
Another indication that England are going all out to succeed in New Zealand is that they have selected their best possible current team whatever the consequences. So it doesn’t matter if Tom Curry has serious lifelong hip problems, has played just 34 minutes of rugby since the World Cup and could really use a proper preseason – he’s been selected.
Maro Itoje has blown his RFU workload allowance but he’s on the plane. And they desperately need to develop new props for the World Cup but have chosen to keep relying on Joe Marler, who is retiring next year, and 37yo Dan Cole.
England’s Maro Itoje runs the ball. (Photo by Gaspafotos/MB Media/Getty Images)
They really are doing everything they can to emulate Ireland and win this series.
THE HEAD START
One advantage for Borthwick is that he began his English revival a season and a half ago, with few changes after the World Cup. That’s in contrast to Razor and his green international coaching team, with new first choice selections at lock, blindside, openside, halfback and first five.
Borthwick’s transformation has been effective too. Before the World Cup we were all talking about the big four of the Springboks, the All Blacks, Ireland and France. Now it’s a big five again with England easily the best team on the “weak” side of the World Cup draw. They went agonisingly close to knocking out eventual champions South Africa, then this year beat Ireland and pushed France all the way to re-establish their credentials as a serious force.
They’re still Scotland’s bunnies though.
THE PLAYERS TO LOOK OUT FOR
England only have two, aging, top notch scrummagers but Itoje finally has a quality workhorse tighthead lock (George Martin) to complement his highlight reel impact. Blindside Chandler Cunningham-South is a phenomenally promising young athlete who came all the way through the New Zealand system and can do it all – lineout, running and PSTD style tackling.
England have any number of opensides including familiar names Tom Curry and Sam Underhill. Less well known but a star of the World Cup is No.8 Ben Earl, who’s about as close as you get to Ardie Savea in the Northern Hemisphere.
(Photo by Laurence Griffiths/Getty Images)
England’s halves are exciting but with question marks. Alex Mitchell has had an excellent season for club and country but looked shaky in the Premiership final. Marcus Smith has all the talent in the world but hasn’t convinced in 31 Tests. Perhaps a proper hard running centre supporting him at 12 instead of bossy frustrated fly half Owen Farrell will help. And prepare to enjoy powerful breakout winger Immanuel Feyi-Waboso.
THE TACTICS
When they’re not playing Scotland, England are a resilient group that squeezes opponents and stops them from playing. They put teams under constant pressure and under the tutelage of Saracens box kick maestro Richard Wigglesworth have a very effective high kick chase game.
These are qualities that can make life very difficult for a new All Black team and coach who are itching to play progressive footy. England aren’t one dimensional either, suddenly showing some real attacking flair in their last three matches- two of them against the best teams in the Six Nations.
It’ll be interesting to see how they decide to play. They are well capable of keeping it tight, forcing errors, then striking when they have the chance. On the other hand, with torpedo bomb maestro George Ford injured and the exciting Marcus and Fin Smith running the cutter, the instinct could be to run it. That’s certainly what we saw against Japan to great effect, and indeed all season long from the two young first fives at Harlequins and champions Northampton.
WHY RAZOR HAS A BIG CHALLENGE THIS YEAR
If you think those first two July games are going to be difficult, wait until you see the rest of the season. The Rugby Championship odds are stacked in South Africa’s favour as they host both Freedom Cup Tests, which could result in the All Blacks failing to become Southern Hemisphere champions in a non World Cup year for the first time since 2009.
In fact, Zealand will make no less than five visits to the rest of the big five, including consecutive November internationals against England, Ireland and France. This in a year when Ireland make four, England three, South Africa one and France none at all.
Furthermore, if Borthwick has a stability advantage over Robertson, that’s nothing compared to the other big coaches. Andy Farrell, Rassie Erasmus and Fabien Galthie have all been in charge since at least the beginning of 2020 and were either head or assistant coach before then.
Ireland and South Africa are also both around the peak of their generational cycles with golden generations of players in their early 30s and few changes since the World Cup. The Springboks in particular have been together since 2016 and mainly before, which gives them phenomenal cohesion. France’s generation doree is younger, but Galthie did a great job of blooding them en masse by 2020 so it’s another well-established setup.
CONCLUSION
With all these disadvantages we shouldn’t be too harsh on Razor whatever happens this year. Yes, I expect the ABs to beat England and yes, I expect an overall 80% win rate. But let’s not castigate him if results aren’t so rosy. Already we’re seeing a backlash against the non selection of Auckland media darling Hoskins Sotutu and they haven’t even played yet!
We might need to be patient. The All Blacks will only get better, whereas the teams in green will surely have to transition before the next World Cup. The seeds planted this year by the new coaches and refreshed squad will have every chance to bear fruit.
QUESTIONS
The All Blacks will be deserved favourites, but how much of a challenge will England pose? And how well will Razor’s men cope with such a difficult season?